Is Ted Cruz destined to follow in the footsteps of Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, the last two Republicans to win the Iowa caucuses on the strength of the evangelical vote, and then get steamrolled by the party establishment? Not necessarily.

Iowa has gotten a bad rap among Republicans for being unable to pick winners. But every recent GOP presidential nominee has at least finished in the top three in the caucus with the exception of John McCain, who finished 1.2 percentage points behind third place despite largely bypassing the state. It is almost certain that one of top three finishers in Iowa will win the nomination this year.