The crisis in Ukraine has not reached the dreaded point where it turns into a shooting war. And likely it will not. So we hear no urgent analysis of things like objectives, interior lines, unity of command, logistical staying power, the durability of alliances, and the other matters that have been the concern of European strategists since the days of Napoleon. Germany is not going to invade Russia and visa versa.

But there are analogous strategic considerations and on most of them, Russia has the advantage.  It faces a weak alliance – NATO – that counts on the member with the least at stake in this crisis for its existence and effectiveness.  The United States picks up 75 percent of NATO’s tab and depends on Russia for … nothing.