President Trump is trailing Joe Biden in a state that has backed the White House winner since 1964.
Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, leads Trump by 4 percentage points in Ohio, taking 46% of the vote to the president’s 42%, according to a Your Voice Ohio poll.
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The survey also revealed Biden is experiencing a groundswell of enthusiasm. Almost 31% of respondents said they strongly supported the two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator. In contrast, only 26% said they felt the same way about Trump. Biden’s fans were following the campaign closer than their Trump counterparts, too.
The findings may rattle Trump’s camp after the president beat 2016 Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Ohio by 8 points. Ohio boasts of having the country’s longest streak of picking victors and has 18 electoral votes.
The Your Voice Ohio poll was conducted by Akron’s Center for Marketing and Opinion Research and the University of Akron’s Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.
[Read more: Bad polls puncture Trump message of strength]
“No Republican has ever been elected or reelected in American history without carrying Ohio, so there’s a particular burden on Trump and his allies and supporters to compete effectively in Ohio,” said Bliss Institute Director Emeritus John Green. “These numbers forecast a very competitive race in the state.”
Green added that the survey didn’t study whether Biden was boosted by anti-Trump sentiment, but it found Biden backers cared most about the coronavirus pandemic. Those behind Trump prioritized the economy.
“Some of the other polls in Ohio and elsewhere have shown that a lot of people say their primary reason that they’re backing Biden is because they don’t like Trump. And some people take that to be evidence of a lack of enthusiasm,” he said. “For some people, maybe it is. But you can be really unhappy with Trump and still have a strong preference for Biden.”
RealClearPolitics shows Biden is in front of Trump in Ohio by an average of 2.3 points. FiveThirtyEight predicts a closer race in which Trump has an average 0.2-point advantage. The Cook Political Report similarly describes the contest as leaning Republican.
Your Voice Ohio surveyed 1,037 registered Ohio voters online between June 24 and July 15. The project’s results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
