Here’s a radical thought: What if the latest Iowa caucus polls are basically correct? As we head into voting, there is no evidence that any candidate is collapsing, no evidence that any candidate is zooming upward, and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of movement in the top three of Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio.

But the ground game — what about that? Yes, it matters, and when it comes to turning out voters, the Cruz campaign appears to have a clear advantage. Team Cruz has built the biggest, most conventional ground operation in Iowa, and it will likely work. So it is reasonable to expect that Cruz will get his 23 percent of Republican caucus voters (the number is from the latest Des Moines Register poll) to the caucuses tonight.