The signs of a mounting “wave” of Democratic enthusiasm mean that Republicans would have a roughly 60 percent chance of losing the House if the elections were held today, election analyst Charlie Cook said Monday.
Republicans have a built-in advantage in terms of geographical diversity and districts that offers them protection from President Trump’s unpopularity, Cook said.
Nevertheless, the signs are clear that Democrats have a major enthusiasm advantage, he said. “The polls are flashing, yeah — there’s a wave,” he said. “There’s a big wave.”
Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, offered his analysis of the November midterm elections for bankers at a convention of the Institute of International Bankers at the Trump International Hotel in Washington.
The GOP’s prospects for holding the Senate are brighter because of the number of Democrats up for re-election in 2018 in states that Trump carried easily, he said.
But losing the House, even while keeping the Senate, would be a major blow to Trump’s agenda, not least because he would face the possibility of impeachment and the certainty of dozens of subpoenas.
The key development to track before the November midterms, Cook said, is whether voters begin to give Trump and Republicans more credit for the economy.
