Between poor economic news coming out of China and Germany, the inversion of the yield curve, and trade negotiations with friend and foe alike that have no guarantee of ending positively, signs are mounting that next year’s economy might not be as upbeat as today’s. With the presidential election a little over a year away, the potential of a recession looms large over President Trump’s reelection prospects.

The president’s job approval rating on the economy tends to outpace his overall job approval by around ten percentage points. Consumers still feel fairly good about things, even as their avocados and health insurance premiums get more expensive.