The Pentagon expects the war in Ukraine to be “prolonged,” spokesman John Kirby stated during Friday’s briefing. Kirby’s comments come as the Russians‘ invasion in Ukraine stretches into its eighth week.
“We don’t anticipate that it’s going to be over, you know, in days, or even just coming weeks,” he said. “We think it potentially could go longer than that.”
Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 on three axes: from the north, south, and east. The troops coming from Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north, were tasked with achieving Moscow’s key objective of toppling the capital, Kyiv. These forces were able to get within roughly 10-15 miles of the city center, but they couldn’t get closer. Ukrainian opposition forces successfully defended the capital until Russia withdrew those troops.
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Russian forces regrouped, and many have redeployed to the eastern part of Ukraine, specifically the Donbas region. The area has a significant pro-Russian separatist presence, and fighting between the two sides has occurred since 2014.
Russia is also seeking to capture the city of Mariupol, a strategically important port city on the coast of the Sea of Azov in the southeastern part of the country. If Russian forces can capture the city, which they’ve already surrounded, they will have the territory connecting the Crimea Peninsula, which they annexed in 2014, and the Donbas region.
Senior Russian Cmdr. Rustam Minnekayev claimed Friday that Moscow now wants “full control” of southern Ukraine in addition to the Donbas region in the east.
Kirby also noted that the war could end at any point should Russian President Vladimir Putin decide to withdraw his troops indefinitely.
“The truth is, and I’m sure you’re tired of me saying this, but it could end today. It could end now if Mr. Putin pulled his forces out and stopped this illegal invasion and sat down in good faith with Mr. Zelensky,” he said. “Clearly, he has no intention of doing that. I understand it, but it doesn’t mean it shouldn’t still be said.”
Russia has been increasing its troop presence in the Donbas region this week. Their reinforcements come in the way of four additional battalion tactical groups, which brings the total number of BTGs in the area to roughly 80, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters earlier this week, and each one consists of roughly 800-1,000 service members.
The official also said the Pentagon believes Russia has roughly 75% of the capabilities that it had at the beginning of the invasion.
“Because the Russians are now concentrating their efforts in a smaller geographic area, an area that they have been fighting with the Ukrainian Armed Forces now for eight years, and have been occupying illegally in many cases,” Kirby said, “we would, we would expect that the fighting could be prolonged.”
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The United States, like many Western countries, has provided Ukraine with military equipment to aid in the fight. The Biden administration has designated just under $3.5 billion in eight military packages thus far, and the most recent two have been specifically crafted to fit the needs Ukrainians have for the fight in the Donbas region, some of which require limited training.
