In his final poll of the 2020 presidential race, John Zogby said that Joe Biden is leading President Trump by 6 points, though it is not a lock for the Democrat.
“Joe Biden is somewhat likely to win,” said the president of John Zogby Strategies, whose poll was done with partner EMI Research Solutions. But, he hedged, “there could be a Trump victory.”
The bottom line — Biden is leading Trump 49% to 43%.
[PREDICT TUESDAY’S WINNER WITH THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER’S INTERACTIVE ELECTORAL MAP]
Zogby noted that Biden’s lead is larger than Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton had in 2016, when she won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote. Her lead then, he said, averaged 2.5 points, less than half of Biden’s
He said that 95% of Trump and Biden supporters said that they will not change their vote, which he said mostly eliminates any hint that “hidden voters” are enough to change the outcome.
In presenting their survey on Zoom, Zogby, joined by his son and pollster Jeremy Zogby, predicted that the Democrats will also win the Senate.
Their poll generally followed the 2016 election turnout model and did not overweight or underweight groups such as Republicans. They found that Trump was doing better with black voters, winning 13% support versus the 8% he won in the 2016 election. However, he is down among whites and white evangelical voters.
The national survey of 1,008 with a margin of error of 3.2 points. The details are here.
Zogby also found that the early vote is pro-Biden, and Election Day will see more Trump voters.
Like several others, Zogby said that he believed it would take “at least three days” before the election outcome is known. As a result, he said, chaos could ensue.
“I think we’re going to have a mess tomorrow night through the week and even beyond,” said the long-time Democratic pollster and co-author of the “Weekly Secrets White House Report Card.”
