Required Reading: Liebermania? A Matter of Trust

Now Lowry:

FIRST, LET ME GIVE you the simplistic (not mention optimistic) checkers-playing view of a McCain/Lieberman ticket as it concerns social conservatives: The risks of McCain selecting a pro-choice running mate boil down to one thing – exactly how unacceptable is Barack Obama to social conservatives? As conservatives are well aware, Ronald Reagan isn’t on the ballot this year. In John McCain, the Republican standard bearer is someone who disquiets a lot of different Republicans for a lot of different reasons. McCain’s biggest leg-up with the conservative base isn’t the enthusiasm that he engenders but rather how squeamish the right feels about Obama. In a recent email exchange with an undecided voter, my correspondent described himself as “violently unimpressed” with Obama. That elegant turn of phrase wonderfully captured a crucial dynamic as November approaches. Many conservatives won’t cast their votes for McCain with great enthusiasm, but they may be highly enthusiastic about voting against Obama. To such voters, chancing the presidency on such an inexperienced and unimpressive figure at this historical juncture is unthinkable. The fact is, there are only two choices this year unless we count Barr and Nader and why would we do that? The Rasmussen tracking polls have shown Republicans coming home to McCain in great numbers – the Maverick actually does better among Republicans than Obama does with Democrats. It’s indeed unlikely that social conservatives will decide to cast their ballots for Barack Obama. Frankly, it’s unimaginable. So the question then becomes, how far can McCain push his luck with a particular segment of Republican base voters and still have them show up in November? I VERY MUCH HOPE that the McCain campaign doesn’t buy the “checkers playing” analysis as it completely discounts just how risky a Lieberman selection would be. First things first – the marriage between McCain and many conservatives was a shotgun wedding and remains a tenuous thing. The current strength of the relationship is uncertain. Choosing Lieberman would be by far the riskiest running mate selection in memory. Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot doesn’t mean McCain will automatically excel with the conservative base. The base can ultimately throw up its hands and say “Feh!” to a nominee. It happened to a Republican incumbent president in 1992. If the McCain campaign opts to head in the Lieberman direction, it would have to roll out the maneuver with considerable deftness and dexterity. Since we’re being brutally frank here, we should acknowledge that the McCain campaign hasn’t always been characterized by such things. In choosing Lieberman, it would be desirable, indeed probably necessary, for the campaign to have brought on board social conservatives such as Tom Coburn and Rush Limbaugh before making the selection so those figures could reassure conservatives that McCain and his running mate can be trusted on abortion. After all, if McCain can’t convince social conservatives that they’re better off with him than Obama, then why would they show up in November? McCain and his campaign will have to work at making their case in this regards. One last thing about McCain potentially selecting Joe Lieberman as his running mate: It would be a sure sign that McCain is running as McCain. As Jennifer Rubin notes over at Commentary, “The choice might create more problems than it’s worth, isn’t politically safe or very smart in some regards, and would shake up the GOP. Sounds like just the thing McCain would do.” Indeed. If McCain selects Lieberman, the move propels him to victory and the McCain administration appoints Supreme Court justices like Roberts and Alito, I’ll be delighted. And if the campaign stumbles while failing to assure social conservatives that the ticket can be trusted and ultimately implodes, I’ll always have the option of saying, “Don’t blame me – I voted for Romney.”