WE’RE BACK: Much has happened on the national security beat during our brief holiday hiatus: a Russia-Turkey imposed cease-fire in Syria, President Obama’s rebuke of Israeli settlements, an expulsion of Russian diplomats over hacking allegations, and new terror attacks in Turkey. But one thing has not changed, President-elect Trump’s ability to drive the news cycle with cryptic tweets. Last night’s taunted the hermit kingdom with a veiled threat: “North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the U.S. It won’t happen!” That set off a round of reaction and speculation about just what Trump plans to do.
For the record, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a televised New Year’s address, said his country is in the “last stage” of preparations to test fire a long-range ICBM capable of reaching the United States to, in theory, be able to threaten the U.S. with nuclear weapons or even carry out a preemptive attack.
The South Korean foreign ministry interpreted Trump’s 140 characters as a “clear warning” to the North, while in China, a state-run tabloid accused Trump of “pandering to ‘irresponsible’ attitudes.”
No one besides Trump knows what is in Trump’s mind, but readers with long memories may recall that way back in 2006, former Defense Secretary William Perry and current Defense Secretary Ash Carter advocated taking out a North Korean missile as it sat as a big fat target on the launch pad. The only drawback to the plan? The possibility that Pyongyang would react with all-out war on the Korean peninsula, which Pentagon war games estimate would result in one million casualties.
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TRUMP ON RUSSIAN HACKS: The president-elect will get a formal briefing as soon as today on the Russian hacks during the U.S. elections, and afterward is promising to inform the American public of his current thinking. “He has agreed to have an intelligence briefing, and he will have that here at Trump Tower this week,” incoming White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told MSNBC. “He will hear from our top intelligence officials … what they know.”
Meanwhile incoming White House spokesman Sean Spicer insists there is no evidence that Russia actually influenced the presidential election, downplaying recent conclusions by federal investigators that Moscow specifically targeted Democratic Party organizations. And despite a growing bipartisan consensus in Congress that Vladimir Putin was focused on helping Trump make it to the White House.
Spicer accused the media of overstating Russia’s influence on the election. “The way the mainstream media is playing it up is that [Russia] had an influence on the election,” Spicer said. “There is zero evidence that they actually influenced the election.”
That puts Trump on a collision course with some members of his own party in Congress, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain, who supports the administration’s sanctions against Russia.
SASC TO-DO LIST: The new Congress convenes today and has an ambitious agenda. McCain’s committee holds a hearing Thursday, where top intelligence officials will testify about cyber risks facing the U.S. and the Russian cyber attacks on the 2016 election. McCain says he wants to go further than Obama when it comes to punishing Putin. He called retaliatory measures announced by the administration “long overdue,” but added, “Ultimately, they are a small price for Russia to pay for its brazen attack on American democracy. We intend to lead the effort in the new Congress to impose stronger sanctions on Russia.”
Also on deck for this month, the committee will hold a confirmation hearing for retired Gen. Jim Mattis, the president-elect’s pick to take over as secretary of defense. Experts said to expect a cordial hearing, but also one in which Mattis is forced to answer for many of the inflammatory statements Trump has made on national security.
The new Congress also means fresh faces in Washington. One of them, Rep.-elect Scott Taylor, talked with us about how his military service prepared him to serve on Capitol Hill and what he hopes to accomplish his freshman year.
VOTE OF LOW CONFIDENCE: Americans have decidedly less confidence in Trump just before his inauguration than they did in his two most recent predecessors, a new poll finds. Fewer than half of people surveyed think Trump will be able to prevent major scandals in his administration, handle an international crisis and use military force wisely, according to a Gallup poll. By contrast, more than 70 percent had such confidence in Obama and former President George W. Bush.
THE SECRET TO CUTTING AIR FORCE ONE COSTS: Now we know how Trump will bring the costs down: good-looking generals. CNN obtained video of Trump’s New Year’s Eve speech to 800 guests at Mar-a-Lago, and the story included this tidbit: “US officials, including at the White House, have suggested the $4 billion is inflated. During his speech, Trump claimed to have cut $1 billion from the price tag for the new presidential aircraft. Trump called the generals who he met with ‘beautiful,’ and alleged they made ‘Tom Cruise look like dirt.’”
NEGOTIATING, 140 CHARACTERS AT A TIME: We’re still dealing with that “WHOA” moment the Thursday before Christmas when Trump tweeted that he wanted Boeing to price out an F/A-18 Super Hornet with similar capabilities to the Lockheed Martin F-35. Experts say the new president’s willingness to take on costly defense acquisition programs such as Air Force One or the F-35 on Twitter will force a fundamental change to how defense lobbyists protect their programs. By bringing these conversations out into the public on a social media platform, some experts said Trump will also force lobbyists “out of the shadows” and require public relations shops to work smarter.
RFP IS OUT: The Air Force on Friday released its final request for proposal for the new T-X trainer jet to replace its fleet of Northrop Grumman T-38s. The $16.3 billion contract is expected to be awarded this year with initial operating capability coming in fiscal 2024.
CHINA’S CARRIER ON DISPLAY: Reuters reports that China’s one and only Soviet-built aircraft carrier conducted drills in the South China Sea last week. Taiwan said the carrier and its escort ships passed 90 nautical miles to the south sailing around the east coast of the island. China called it a routine exercise complying with international law.
NEW TRADE REP: Trump also tweaked China in a tweet that said, “China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U.S. in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea. Nice!” This morning his transition team announced that Trump intends to nominate Robert Lighthizer as U.S. trade representative. Lighthizer, who served in the Reagan administration as a trade representative, was touted for negotiating agreements that were “uniformly tough and frequently resulted in significant reductions in the shipment of unfairly traded imports into the United States.”
PUTIN’S NEW PAL: Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is continuing his pivot to Moscow, welcoming a couple of Russian naval vessels to Manila on a “goodwill visit,” according to Reuters. Russia has expressed interest in conducting maritime drills with the Philippines, at the same time Duterte has indicated he wants to curtail annual exercises with the United States.
WIKI-WHINING: Obama is trying to “delegitimize” Trump’s presidency, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange claims in an interview that airs today. Speaking with Fox News host Sean Hannity at the Ecuadorian embassy in London, Assange accused Obama of having a dramatic response to the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta’s emails because he is “trying to say that President-elect Trump is not a legitimate president.” Assange also denied Podesta’s hacked emails, which WikiLeaks trickled out in the final weeks of the election, came from Russia. “Our source is not a state party,” he said.
ISIS ATTACK IN IRAQ: Twenty-four people died and another 67 were wounded in Baghdad on Monday, after a car bomb planted by the Islamic State exploded in the city’s Sadr City district. The Sunni-led Islamic State was targeting a gathering of Shiite Muslims, according to the Amaq news agency, which supports the Islamic State. The attack follows a blast Saturday that killed 29 people.
NEVERMIND: Last week the Washington Post reported that Russian hackers had apparently penetrated the U.S. electric grid by planting a malicious code in a computer. Now it turns out the laptop computer at Burlington Electric was not attached to the grid. A front page story in this morning’s Post essentially retracts the account, and blames “authorities” who were “leaking information about the utility without having all the facts and before law enforcement officials were able to investigate further.” More here.
COOK TIMER: Nothing on the official schedule, but Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook was penciled in for a possible briefing this morning. Cook’s tenure as chief civilian spokesman for the DoD is rapidly coming to a close, and he says he does not yet know his next move. He’ll get a few more chances before Jan. 20 to break his record of never starting a briefing on time. He didn’t brief last week, but Cook did make an appearance on CNN, in which he said Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi remains alive and in charge, despite intense U.S. efforts to track and kill him. “We are obviously doing everything we can to track his movements,” Cook said in a year-end interview. “And if we get the opportunity, we certainly would take advantage of any opportunity to deliver him the justice he deserves.” Would that be before Trump takes office? Cook couldn’t say.
RUMSFELD TAKES A KNEE: A source tells us former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is recuperating from knee surgery. The 84-year-old is said to be anxious to get back on the squash court.
THE RUNDOWN
Breaking Defense: Trump, Kelly, & The Coast Guard: Exclusive Interview With Adm. Zukunft
Military Times: New in 2017: Trump’s first military budget will reveal what’s in store for the next 4 years
Army Times: New in 2017: New Army secretary
Military Times: Questions mount as Trump loses more VA secretary candidates
Military.com: Pentagon Review Could Help Veterans Shed ‘Bad Paper’ Discharges
Washington Post: Obama’s only Navy secretary pushed an agenda of social change. Now, he leaves with a warning.
Daily Beast: Will China Fill the Skies With Stealth Jets?
Reuters: U.S. general sees Islamic State’s capability waning in east Mosul
Associated Press: IS claims responsibility for New Year’s nightclub attack
New York Times: The Afghan War and the Evolution of Obama
UPI: Boeing contracted for NGJ Growler integration
Wall Street Journal: Russia Blocking Afghan Deal
The Cipher Brief: The Post-Caliphate Counterterrorism Challenge
Calendar
THURSDAY | JANUARY 5
9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and head of U.S. Cyber Command Adm. Michael Rogers testify about foreign cyber threats to the United States. armed-services.senate.gov
3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of experts talks about the future of the Pakistani Taliban. wilsoncenter.org
FRIDAY | JANUARY 6
7 a.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, Va. Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James speaks at an Air Force Association breakfast event. afa.org
TUESDAY | JANUARY 10
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Seth Jones, author of Waging Insurgent Warfare: Lessons from the Vietcong to the Islamic State, speaks at the Heritage Foundation. heritage.org
