Home sales in the Baltimore metropolitan area fell by about 30 percent for the third successive month, according to data released Monday.
The new numbers came on the same day the National Association of Realtors, a trade group of real estate agents, released an upbeat outlook for U.S. home sales, claiming the market is stabilizing.
In the Baltimore region, total dollar volume of houses sold in November fell 31.06 percent from the same month in 2006, according to data released by the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc., a multiple-listing service owned by 25 Realtor associations in the Baltimore-Washington area. Total units sold last month fell 30.77 percent to 1,892 from 2,733.
After nine consecutive months of downward revisions, a monthly forecast released Monday by the National Association of Realtors predicted existing home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million. Last month, the group predicted 5.66 million homes would be sold.
The forecast also calls for sales to rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month?s prediction of 5.69 million.
“Despite overexaggerated negative coverage on the housing conditions, many local markets are actually seeing price increases,” theassociation?s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said at a news briefing. “Mortgage availability is improving.”
The forecast predicted the median price for U.S. existing homes will sink by 1.9 percent to $217,600 this year and rise 0.3 percent next year to $218,300.
In the Baltimore area, the median sale price fell 3.81 percent to $259,700 from $270,000, and the average sale price held steady, dropping 0.41 percent to $308,477, according to MRIS data.
Stephen Walters, a professor of economics at Loyola College, questioned the forecast and price numbers put out by the Realtor groups.
“When you go to the second decimal place, you?re grasping at straws,” he said. “I would accord them about the same amount of credibility when they said six months ago there?s no problem, everything?s fine.”
Walters said that even if the forecast is accurate, improving volume of sales alone wouldn?t be enough to prove the housing market had rallied.
“Even if sales rates start to turn around and reach bottom, that?s not necessarily a sign there?s a turnaround,” he said. “It could be that people are starting to get desperate ? or realistic, depending on your point of view ? about the price they?re asking.”
The Associated Press contributed to this story.
