It’s conventional wisdom that the 2016 Republican presidential race is at such an early stage that the polls don’t matter. They’re just a measurement of name recognition at this point, some observers say, and the only people really paying attention to the campaign are reporters and hard-core party activists.

Maybe that was true in earlier years. But it doesn’t seem to be the case now. “One thing about this election — Republicans are paying attention,” says a GOP pollster not affiliated with any campaign. “They are very concerned about who the nominee is going to be, and the idea that what a candidate says now doesn’t matter could not be farther from the truth.”