Beginning next week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will face a wave of Republican filibusters as well as divisions within his own party that threaten to tank the Democratic agenda.
Schumer warned party lawmakers in a memo sent to them last month that the month of June would be “extremely challenging” and “will test our resolve as a Congress and a conference.”
Schumer wasn’t exaggerating.
Democrats face not only the 60-vote hurdle that will allow Republicans to block most bills, but they are also grappling with internal divisions that could stop Democratic lawmakers from ridding the Senate of the filibuster or otherwise circumventing GOP opposition on key legislation, including a significant election reform bill and a major infrastructure measure.
Democrats face a filibuster as early as next week, when Schumer said he plans to call up the House-passed Paycheck Fairness Act.
While Democrats believe the legislation is necessary to ensure pay equity, Republicans believe it is unnecessary and even harmful to workers and businesses. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, blocked the bill from floor consideration in the last Congress, when Republicans were in the majority.
Democrats control 50 votes and would need at least 10 Republicans to vote with them just to bring up the bill for debate.
If the GOP filibusters the Paycheck Fairness Act next week, it will be the second time this year Republicans used the 60-vote threshold to kill Democratic legislation. Republicans last week blocked a House-passed bill that would have created an independent and bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.
Democrats are already frustrated with the filibuster and could face several more in June.
Schumer said he’s considering bringing a gun control measure to the Senate floor this month as well as a measure ensuring LGBTQ equality, both of which are likely to run into the filibuster roadblock because they lack meaningful GOP support.
Schumer pledged that by the end of the month, he’ll also bring up a Democratic measure that would overhaul election, campaign, and voting laws.
The bill passed the House without a single Republican vote and faces the same fate in the Senate unless by late June Democrats become so frustrated they make a move to eliminate the filibuster and the 60-vote threshold.
But an attempt to rid the Senate of the filibuster will divide Democrats and can’t pass unless they all agree to vote to get rid of it.
Even without the 60-vote hurdle, Democrats will struggle to pass legislation unilaterally.
Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, not only opposes the elimination of the filibuster, but he wants bipartisan changes to the election and voting reform measure.
Schumer downplayed Manchin’s opposition, telling reporters Democrats have held “strong and intense discussions” about the bill in their weekly closed-door lunches.
“Those discussions are ongoing, and I have a lot of faith in them,” Schumer added.
The biggest party test may come in July when Schumer plans to begin work on part one of President Joe Biden’s infrastructure proposal.
As it stands, the $1.7 trillion measure lacks any GOP support and could fall short of enough votes for Democrats to pass unilaterally using a special budgetary tactic.
Manchin and other centrist Democrats are concerned about the size and scope of the bill, but Manchin also opposes Biden’s plan to pay for the measure by raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
Biden is now negotiating with Senate Republicans on a narrower and less costly deal and is considering dropping the plan to hike corporate taxes.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the president is interested in looping in centrist Democrats who also favor a bipartisan accord on fixing the nation’s crumbling roads, bridges, and waterways.
The bipartisan talks on the package could make infrastructure the most likely legislative candidate to clear the Senate filibuster hurdle this summer.
But it’s a long way off, and time is running out. Democrats have been in the majority now for five months, and their liberal base is running out of patience with both Schumer and centrist Democrats who do not support ending the filibuster.
“Democrats are doing everything we can to move bipartisan legislation when we can, when the opportunity exists,” Schumer said last week. “But we will not wait for months and months to pass meaningful legislation that delivers real results for the American people.”
