News of high April employment growth along with strong first-quarter numbers on labor productivity felt better than a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth inning in a tied game. Yes, the home team cheered wildly for this evidence of a strong economic pulse. There were far more smiles than frowns. But let’s continue looking more closely and see what data tell us.

As shown in the nearby chart, employment growth has been accelerating since early 2018. But the chart also tells us that things went south in December 2018 following several government actions, and now, even with the good numbers in April, the growth rate is getting weaker.