With the current financial turmoil, there are many who will claim the fate of the lending markets, the future of free trade, and the stability of the dollar all rest of the outcome of this presidential election.
Others say Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will put a stop to free trade and that his Republican rival John McCain will create a world where private markets are aloud to function free from government interference. And the list goes on and on.
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Those issues are certainly relevant and their outcomes dire indeed. Yet there is one trend that remains undisputed – this election will decide the fate of the American labor union.
What once comprised more than 35 percent of the American workforce in the mid-1950s today accounts for a mere 12 percent, and is falling. Within that number, however, there lies a diverging, and often misleading trend.
While overall union membership is down about 23 percent since its heyday and individual private sector union rates are down to around 8 percent from a high of 24 percent in 1972, public sector unionization remains the silver lining for organized labor. The unions’ glimmer of hope remains with the drones of government employees that are increasingly joining their ranks.
Up marginally from last year, current public sector government union rates are around 35 percent. The trend since 1994, however, indicates a negative slope. What does this mean for the future relevance of the labor union?
Many pundits and pollsters will contend that statistics speak for themselves and the labor movement is dying. However, it is important to remember that an injured beast can still strike – and the timing is perfect.
November holds many untold opportunities – one in particular is vitally important for America’s workforce. The future of Big Labor will be decided with this election and there are only two courses that can be taken: survive and thrive, or take a hit and continue to wither into irrelevance.
If Barack Obama takes over the White House and the left continues to control the House and the Senate – labor unions live.
The so-called Employee Free Choice Act, (better known as Card Check), will be passed into law. Card Check disenfranchises millions of workers by stripping their right to private ballot voting when deciding on union membership.
This legislation will open the flood-gates for mass-unionization, threats, violence, intimidation and coercion that will rival 1950s gangster movies.
Forced mandatory bargaining will be thrust upon each state, despite their previous sovereign laws in the form of the misnamed Public Safety Employee-Employer Cooperation Act.
Such mandated bargaining is the source of the Vallejo, Calif. bankruptcy filling. This occurred when the city could not pay the 74 percent of the general salary demanded by public safety unions.
Right-to-work laws will be repealed, leading to forced unionization and compulsory dues paying as a condition of employment. Automatic paycheck deductions will be used to virtually “steal” union members “dues” to be used for political activity and other actions that they may not support.
Independent contractor “reform” will render entrepreneurs obsolete as they are forced to choose one company to work for. Competitive sourcing and privatization of government activities will cease to exist as government unions mandate all services be performed “in house.” This will result in an increase in the size and scope of the federal government, thus leading to higher taxes.
Currently, 91 percent of all labor union PAC contributions go to Democrats. If Obama is elected, the unions expect their dollars to be returned in the form of pro-union legislation that will help them collect more members and more dues. Unions win.
Conversely, if McCain (who has publicly opposed “card check”) wins the presidency, and retains a veto-sustaining margin in Congress – labor unions continue their long decline.
That will mean Card Check gets the veto. States’ rights are upheld and forced collective bargaining does not pass. State “right to work” laws are not threatened and individuals’ paychecks are protected from automatic deductions by unions and other groups.
Regulatory reform increases competitive sourcing and inefficient government jobs are turned over to a more effective private workforce, decreasing the government union power-hold. Unions lose.
As Grover Norquist might say, this election is a battle between the “Leave Us Alone” coalition and the “Takings Coalition.” I hope everyone celebrated this past Labor Day, as we might mourn the next.
Brian M. Johnson is executive director of the Alliance for Worker Freedom and author of the forth-coming “2008 Index of Worker Freedom: A National Report Card.”
