Beware of rocky start

If very little should be derived from a normal NFL preseason, even less should be taken away from the last four weeks. Thanks to the lockout, the preseason essentially served as a glorified session of organized team activities (OTAs). With less practice, the first four weeks or so of the regular season could have an increased chance for surprising results that could influence playoff races down the stretch, especially in the league’s most competitive divisions.

NFC West

On talent alone, St. Louis should be poised to overtake Seattle at the top of the worst division in the league, but the Rams’ first seven games couldn’t be more difficult. The stretch includes three NFC East teams plus Green Bay, New Orleans and Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a whole mess of new faces. Should Sam Bradford or Tarvaris Jackson see their teams stumble out of the gate, there will be plenty of hope for San Francisco or Arizona.

AFC South

The Houston Texans are licking their chops for this weekend with Peyton Manning looking increasingly like he’ll miss a start for the first time in his career, and the Colts may have more catching up to do than anyone in the league. The door has been left wide open for Tennessee, which is settled at quarterback, for once, with Matt Hasselbeck. But even with the Titans, an overhaul is an overhaul, and that could mean a few weeks of settling in. And no one would dare count Jacksonville out, either.

NFC South

Yes, even Carolina has won this division in the past four years. No, they won’t this year. But Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Atlanta, each of which won 10 or more games last year, expect to build off of that success and again find themselves in the thick of a title race. With quarterbacks Josh Freeman, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, the odds are increased that the Bucs, Saints and Falcons will hit their strides right away, too. With a topsy-turvy start to the season expected, they can ill afford not to.

– Craig Stouffer

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