Many critics have assumed that if President Trump forcefully rebuffed Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria in the now-famous Oct. 6 phone call, the Turkish president would have backed down.
But Trump, backed up by his defense and state secretaries, insists Erdoğan was not bluffing and was hellbent on launching a clearing operation across his southern border. The goal was to establish a safe zone as a buffer against elements of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that Turkey considers anti-government terrorists.
U.S. efforts at a compromise arrangement centered on keeping a small number of American special operations forces in the border region. It would both keep the Kurdish militia focused on the ongoing battle against several thousand ISIS fighters remaining in Syria and mitigate any threat to Turkey, a valuable NATO ally.
Ultimately, Erdoğan rejected the so-called security mechanism as inadequate and told Trump he was going in, prompting Trump to evacuate roughly 30 troops from two outposts just across the Turkish border in Syria.
A week into the Turkish military operation, Trump ordered all U.S. troops out of northern Syria, saying that allowing the Syrian regime and Russian force to protect the Kurds was “strategically brilliant.”
The fatal flaw in the painstakingly negotiated security mechanism, under which U.S. and Turkish troops were to patrol and monitor the Syrian buffer zone jointly, was it would ensure the Kurds would not attack Turkey. However, it did nothing to solve Erdoğan’s other big problem: what to do about millions of Syrian refugees who have fled the fighting over the years.
Since 2011, more than 3 million refugees, or “guests” as Turkey calls them, have escaped danger and death in Syria and primarily assimilated into Turkish society, despite enjoying only temporary protected status.
About 100,000 live in camps near the border.
It’s the most significant number of refugees taken in by a single country and has cost Turkey an estimated $37 billion over eight years.
During that time, Turkey has earned mostly plaudits from the international community for its welcoming policy, but as the war in Syria dragged on and the refugee population swelled, public sentiment in Turkey started to shift.
Erdoğan’s political opponents began to use rising anti-immigrant fervor against him, notably in June’s municipal election in Istanbul, where Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party lost to the opposition Republican People’s Party.
Meanwhile, the recent Syrian government offensive against some of the last rebel-held territory in the north resulted in hundreds of thousands of more refugees entering Turkey, further inflaming the resentment toward Syrians living there.
Turks increasingly feel the Syrian refugees can’t stay forever, and Erdoğan, sensing an existential threat to his rule, responded with a bold and controversial plan.
Last month, he had thousands of Syrians from major Turkish cities rounded up and bused to the border as he announced a plan to begin repatriating them to Syria.
“Our goal is to settle at least 1 million Syrian brothers and sisters in our country in this safe zone,” Erdoğan said in a speech to his party faithful. “If needed, with support from our friends, we can build new cities there and make it habitable for our Syrian siblings.”
But to carry out his plan, Erdoğan needed more than the U.S. guarantee the Kurdish forces wouldn’t threaten his country. He needed the very land that Kurdish forces controlled.
With Erdoğan believing his refugee problem was reaching the breaking point, and with a small number of U.S. troops his only obstacle, he successfully pressured Trump to stand down.
There is no indication Erdoğan raised the refugee issue in his call with Trump, but if he had he might have found a sympathetic ear, given Trump’s belief that asylum seekers from Central American countries are exploiting immigration laws to enter the United States.
Meanwhile, advocates for refugees are warning Erdoğan’s repatriation scheme is a recipe for another humanitarian disaster in Syria.
“Erdoğan’s declared intention to use a so-called ‘safe zone’ in the northeast to return up to a million Syrian refugees is shockingly irresponsible and will put lives at grave risk,” said Eric Schwartz, president of Refugees International, in response to the U.S. troop withdrawal.
“A Turkish military operation into northeast Syria will likely force international relief groups to evacuate just when they are most needed,” Schwartz said. “It could open new fronts in the conflict and displace hundreds of thousands of civilians across an area already in the grip of a humanitarian crisis.”
“They have a problem at a border, it’s not our border. We shouldn’t be losing lives over it,” Trump said Wednesday regarding the Turkish offensive. “In the meantime, our soldiers are not in harm’s way, as they shouldn’t be, as two countries fight over land that has nothing to do with us.”
Jamie McIntyre is the Washington Examiner‘s senior writer on defense and national security. His morning newsletter, “Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense,” is free and available by email subscription at dailyondefense.com.
