John Kasich never won the conservative vote in any state. He never even finished second. Even in New Hampshire, where he beat Ted Cruz statewide, Kasich never beat Cruz among the conservative vote.
In Ohio, however, Kasich carried the “conservative” bloc with 40 percent. Among the “very conservative” third of the electorate, Kasich beat Ted Cruz. Kasich also won the Evangelical vote, doubling Cruz’s percentage.
Among Kasich voters nearly 65 percent said they would vote for Cruz or Rubio if either man were the nominee. This data all suggests that many voters who preferred Cruz or Rubio ended up voting for Kasich. This was likely because Ohio is a winner-take-all state, and Kasich was the only candidate with a chance to beat Donald Trump. Rubio’s campaign actually told his Ohio supporters to vote for Rubio.
As of this writing, Kasich is leading Trump by about 6.5 percent, which is at the upper end of what the polls suggest the strategic vote might be.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
