When Mayor Adrian Fenty and D.C. Council Chairman Vince Gray officially began their duel to win the Democratic mayoral nomination last spring, political pundits chalked wards into each candidate’s column. But as the campaigns head into the final stretch, it appears Fenty has lost a firm hold on some wards he was once figured to win.
Heading into the campaign cycle, conventional wisdom was that Fenty would easily win wards 1, 2, 3 and 4. Their heavy populations of white, affluent voters were perfect territory for the mayor’s push to make his re-election a referendum on D.C. Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee, who has turned off many black voters.
But with just a little more than week to go before the Sept. 14 Democratic primary, it appears Fenty may lose in wards 1 and 4, polls show. He now also must commit resources to Ward 3, where Councilwoman Mary Cheh has endorsed Fenty’s rival, Gray.
In 2006, Fenty won 69 percent of Ward 4, which he still represented as a councilman, and 61 percent of Ward 1. A Washington Post poll released on Aug. 29 found that he had the support of about 40 percent of voters in both wards, trailing Gray by about 6 points.
A poll sponsored by Ward 1 Councilman Jim Graham’s campaign completed last week showed Fenty faring even worse there, 34 percent to Gray’s 46 percent, according to two Democratic Party sources not affiliated with the Graham campaign. That’s an 18-point flip from a Graham campaign poll in June that found Fenty leading 43 percent to Gray’s 37.
Unlike wards 5 and 6, which have gentrified quickly during Fenty’s term and were viewed as battlegrounds from the start, wards 1 and 4 have been more stable. What has likely changed for the voters in the area that starts in Adams Morgan and stretches north and east is their perception of the mayor even as development projects have blossomed and homicides have dropped.
Fenty has been unable to convince voters that he’ll reach out to residents more if he wins a second term despite outspending Gray at a rate of about 3 to 1 and an apology tour that asked voters to forgive him for not being inclusive enough.
Much of that message has been delivered to voters through television and radio advertisements, mailings and large-scale public engagements such as debates.
“Fenty needs to connect more directly with voters to change their minds,” said political consultant Chuck Thies. “He needs to match Gray’s grass-roots, volunteer-based campaign and he hasn’t done that.”
