Politico had a nice piece yesterday on House Democrats’ ambitions for retaking the majority in 2012. The common wisdom at this point is that the goal is probably out of the reach of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, but it’s so hard to predict such things — what were they saying in 2009?
The Democrats will focus on 14 Republican seats that both President Obama and John Kerry won in their respective presidential races:
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The bulk of the Kerry-Obama seats are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest. Pennsylvania is home to five — veteran Reps. Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach and newly elected Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick, Patrick Meehan and Lou Barletta. Two are from Illinois — Reps. Bobby Schilling and Robert Dold. Minnesota (Rep. Chip Cravaack), New Hampshire (Rep. Charlie Bass), New York (Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle) and Ohio (Rep. Steve Stivers) are each home to one seat.
The only West Coast member of the club is veteran Rep. Dave Reichert, who represents a suburban Seattle district.
All well and good. Except that someone ought to tell them about redistricting.
If this news release was anything more than a push at public relations and fundraising, you’d expect them to wait and see what the districts actually look like. For example, Bass, Fitzpatrick, and Dent will probably be targets no matter how redistricting comes out. But Duffy, Stivers and Cravaack (and possibly Reichert) could end up with relatively or even very safe Republican seats. Schilling’s seat might not even exist. How are they going to win it then?
