Earlier this evening, Drudge first broke news of a “civil war” at ABC News over whether to air a “bombshell campaign interview.” We now know that it was an interview with Newt Gingrich’s second ex-wife and that it will air on “Nightline” tomorrow, with excerpts being released before the 8 p.m. GOP debate. The obvious question is how this will affect Gingrich’s chances in Saturday’s South Carolina primary. I see a few possibilities.
One scenario is that explosive revelations about the drama surrounding Gingrich’s cheating on his wife (or just an on camera version of her 2010 Esquire interview) takes the steam out of what appears to be a late surge in South Carolina on the heels of a strong debate performance Monday. Another is that the issue is largely brushed off as old news, even greeted with suspicion among GOP primary voters, especially given the timing. Will those who view the liberal media with scorn dismiss the interview as an attempt to destroy a conservative candidate?
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My guess is that it will be somewhat a blend of the two. To a large extent, Gingrich’s messy personal life is built into his poll numbers — nobody is voting for his purity. As Allahpundit puts it, “Unless she’s got a bombshell she’s ready to drop, how many voters thinking of voting for him at this point will really think twice?” So it may not lose him a significant number of votes among those who are already in his camp.
But the biggest problem is that it changes the news cycle. Since Monday, the media has been reporting on Gingrich’s strong debate performance and his late comeback, while focusing on issues related to Romney’s tax returns. But now, the focus is likely to shift away from Romney and toward Gingrich’s messy second divorce. Tomorrow, we’ll have all the speculation about what she’ll say, and bits of the interview will start to leak out. Then, he’ll likely be asked to address it during the debate. Afterward, the interview will air. And then it will dominate coverage on Friday, the day before voting begins. Given that Gingrich came into South Carolina way behind and has been trying to claw his way ahead of Romney, it’s hard to see how this doesn’t at least take some wind out of his sails.
