A series of failed attempts to catalyze an uprising against Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has both the opposition and the United States out on a limb. Within hours of interim President Juan Guaidó announcing a rebellion on April 30, defection by key regime insiders failed to materialize. In the aftermath of a failed uprising and Guaidó’s endorsement of negotiations with the Maduro regime, it has become painfully obvious that both the opposition and Washington policymakers do not understand what motivates the Venezuelan military.

So far, the opposition and the U.S. have been unable to convince the Venezuelan officer corps to defect, even as the broader strategy of international pressure and the U.S. commitment to sanctions has succeeded in rattling the Maduro regime. Yet, repeated attempts at ill-conceived and poorly executed plots sap critical energy from the opposition and make it look desperate. Worse, it has convinced the Maduro regime that it can outlast the opposition, possibly by using the negotiations starting in Norway to stall for time.