Even as Russia bumbles and stumbles in its attempt to subjugate Ukraine, numerous Nervous Nellies are suggesting the West should give dictator Vladimir Putin an “off ramp” that includes territorial concessions.
Forgive the bluntness, but this is idiocy.
Except as a last resort, the West absolutely should not reward an evil actor for his aggression. The imperative is to act resolutely, not to seek “resolution” of the conflict at the cost of strategic defeat.
RUSSIANS FACE UNIQUE, TOTAL CULTURAL REJECTION
The concession most commonly suggested is for Ukraine to forfeit not just its claim to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia conquered in 2014, but also the entirety of the two supposedly “breakaway” provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. Some analysts also say Ukraine should commit to never joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and perhaps that NATO should withdraw some forces from its eastern-most members, the ones closest to Russia. And, of course, that all the recent sanctions against Russia be lifted.
All of this would be ill-advised. It would mean that Putin benefits from his murderous rampage. It would signal that war crimes will go unpunished, and that the West will not stand firm against nations waging war on innocents and against democracy. It would thus invite, not deter, more wars waged by more malevolent nations that are willing to endure short-term pain in hopes of Putin-like territorial and strategic gains.
The West has the upper hand, if it will only play it strongly. The combined conventional force troop strength of NATO’s European nations (1.495 million) — in other words, not even including the U.S. or Turkey — substantially outweighs Russia’s 1.154 million. As it is, Ukraine’s 190,000 troops alone have been enough for weeks to hold off Russia’ more numerous personnel and advanced weaponry allotted to this particular war effort. And while Putin threatens the use of nuclear arms, the entire chain of command in Russia surely understands that the West’s even greater nuke strength (and missile defenses) would ensure the utter obliteration of Russia if Putin tries to order the unthinkable. The generals likely would not carry out such an order.
Meanwhile, Russia’s economic output per capita was already embarrassingly low before the war. The combined weight of worldwide sanctions against Russia has been devastating. More and more Russian oligarchs are saying “Nyet” to Putin’s war; some Russian generals reportedly have serious doubts about it, and tens of thousands of ordinary Russians publicly have protested against it.
In the long run, Putin cannot win unless the West loses its will. Yes, for peace and so that innocents will not suffer or be slaughtered, the West should try to provide Putin an “off ramp” in the form of rhetorical fig leaves. They should give him chances to save face. But it should be rhetoric only, not substance. Even then, it should be offered only grudgingly, and only where intolerable humanitarian duress forces it.
This obscene war ought to catalyze the defenestration of Putin. Even short of that, though, it should result, by all objective measures, in his regime’s decisive defeat.
