President Trump must ignore North Korea’s threat on Tuesday to cancel its upcoming summit in Singapore. North Korea is complaining about a twice annual U.S.-South Korean air force exercise named “Max Thunder,” the latest incarnation of which began last Friday and will run through the end of next week.
According to the North Korean state media, Trump must now “undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-U.S. summit in light of this provocative military ruckus.”
Let’s be clear, North Korea is bluffing here and should be utterly ignored.
First off, the North Koreans have been well aware of the exercise for months now. Max Thunder takes place twice each year and has proceeded in that fashion for many years. This is not some bolt from the blue.
More importantly, the exercise is crucial to the war-fighting readiness of the U.S. and South Korean militaries. Max Thunder aims to ensure that U.S. and South Korean pilots can establish air superiority pockets in the opening hours of any conflict with North Korea. Because of language differences, slight differences in tactics and operational culture, and the fact that U.S. Air Force personnel are rotating in and out of South Korea all the time (and thus have varied experience), the exercise is crucial in maintaining air power competencies. That competency would heavily influence both U.S. and South Korean casualties in conflict.
By itself, this factor should motivate Trump to totally ignore North Korea’s warning.
But while it should be irrelevant to Trump’s decision, I’m highly confident North Korea is bluffing here. For a start, consider that the North Korean propaganda announcement was unusually polite in its wording. Where most North Korean propaganda messages are defined by dripping anti-Americanism and creative hyperbole, this complaint simply warned Trump against continuing the exercise. From my perspective this indicates a North Korean fear that excessive rhetoric might alienate Trump and lead him to cancel the summit himself.
Yet the most operative point here is that Kim clearly wants the summit. He wants the summit because it gives him an opportunity to please Beijing and placate Trump with promises (real or fictional) so as to avoid new sanctions and give himself more time to develop his warhead re-entry vehicle.
Trump should totally ignore North Korea’s threat. Rather, Trump should warn South Korean president Moon Jae-in that if he withdraws South Korean forces from the exercise, Trump will withdraw from the summit.
