People accept as fact that the polling industry epically failed in the 2016 and 2020 elections, particularly Democratic pollsters. The predicted “blue wave” never materialized in either election, even though most polls showed Democrats with an insurmountable lead. To many, the industry performed even worse in 2020 than it did in 2016, given the even larger differences between predicted and actual votes. Many have asked what changes can be made to avoid this in 2024.

However, the private polling industry is actually performing efficiently given the objectives of its market participants, including those participating in and producing polls. But it is failing for the consumers of the forecast services it provides. But they are not paying anything for these services, so as the saying goes, you get what you pay for.