Though not something to celebrate, America has reached its highest level of economic policy uncertainty since President Trump’s January 2017 inauguration. It seems that Trump hit a veritable uncertainty bonanza when, in a wide-ranging interview, he indicated that America was winning the trade war even though the trade deficit with China, his preferred measure of success or failure, is rising, and in his opinion, the trade controversy could produce a short recession.

As shown in the attached chart reflecting Federal Reserve data from Scott Baker, Nick Bloom, and Stephen J. Davis, economic policy uncertainty for the week of Aug. 19 rose well above the previous high that had occurred when the government was shut down at the end of 2018. Based on the unhappy relationship between uncertainty and economic performance, this noteworthy achievement predicts lower future per-capita income for Americans.