Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine precipitated a tectonic shift in European security. It also moved the epicenter of security eastward. Poland is now the foundation of NATO’s eastern front as it confronts an aggressive Russia.
Poland’s importance is evident in its size, location, resources, defense commitments, regional role, and connections with the United States. Poland’s economy is the seventh-largest in the European Union and the largest among all former Soviet bloc states that joined the EU. Growth is sustainable. Poland’s 38 million population benefits from high levels of education and professional expertise. Equally important, Warsaw has made serious investments in its military. Poland’s defense budget is set to increase from 2.5% to 3% of GDP in 2023, with further increases in a five-year plan to boost military capabilities and double troop numbers to 300,000. Moreover, Poland views itself as a rising regional leader based on its history, economic potential, military prowess, and staunch opposition to Russian imperialism.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has enhanced Poland’s regional role.
Poland welcomed over 2 million Ukrainian refugees and integrated them into its labor market. It is the primary conduit for humanitarian aid and military supplies to Ukraine’s armed forces, including its own stockpiles of weapons. Kyiv views Warsaw as its closest ally and its gateway to an EU future, and Warsaw will be the central hub for Ukraine’s economic reconstruction. Both capitals, together with the three Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia), are also exploring ways to strengthen their security linkages and transportation and energy networks while developing closer military ties with the U.S.
With German and French prestige weakened in the light of their inadequate response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATO is gravitating eastward. Poland’s cross-party consensus in boosting its security role will be strengthened in an eastern front that will include Finland and Sweden as the newest NATO members. Warsaw’s increasing purchases of U.S. military equipment, including Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter aircraft, and the growing number of American troops on its territory are transforming Poland into Washington’s pivotal ally in continental Europe.
Over the coming decade, Poland will face two urgent regional challenges: promoting the reconstruction of Ukraine following the destructive war and handling the regional impact of Russia’s domestic turmoil, given its economic decline and potential military defeat. Warsaw will need to develop a multidimensional strategy with its neighbors and allies, combining all informational, cyber, economic, diplomatic, and military domains. With Washington’s close support, it needs to capitalize on Russia’s vulnerabilities, help shield NATO allies and partners from any negative security consequences, and plan for a prolonged period of regional uncertainty, including the potential emergence of new political entities from the Russian Federation.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington. He is the co-author of Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks with Margarita Assenova. His new book, Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, will be published in July.
