Russian President Vladimir Putin is desperate, that’s for sure. But his threat of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine is a classic Soviet-style attempt at blackmail that, hopefully, no Western leader will fall for.
Calls for appeasement at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty are inappropriate at this point. The real — and, in my opinion, the only — reason behind Putin’s threat is to scare the West into accepting his demands. But he is bluffing.
Putin’s propaganda bluff is, unfortunately, getting some traction. President Joe Biden gave it credibility with his “Armageddon” warning, which is precisely what Putin wanted. Biden and the Democrats may want to use the fake threat of a nuclear conflict with Russia to help their party secure more votes in the elections. A real national security emergency could persuade some voters not to upset the country’s ruling establishment. Americans, however, are perhaps not so naive as to believe in an imminent Russian nuclear attack and forget about inflation and their shrinking wealth.
FOUR TAKEAWAYS ON THE STATE OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Still, some right-leaning politicians and pundits, targeted for years by Putin’s influence operations, are now the largest group falling for the Kremlin’s propaganda and blackmail. This does not mean that segments of the Western Left, who were the primary target of Soviet propaganda during the Cold War, are unaffected by Putin’s disinformation. They are, however, no longer firmly on the side of post-Soviet Russia since it ceased being linked in their minds with social progress and socialism.
The Left may, however, still fall for a peace offensive, which Putin will no doubt soon resume after instilling a sufficient amount of fear in the West. The energy blackmail does not appear to have worked. But the latest Russian rocket attacks on Kyiv are part of this plan. Putin is counting on scaring everyone to pressure Ukraine to give him what he wants.
If he stages a new provocation, which I believe he will, it will be one that he has not announced in advance. It could still be extremely dangerous and costly for the United States and the West.
But a nuclear strike of any kind would ultimately be much more dangerous and costly for Russia and for Putin himself. Americans and Europeans should not be fooled or blackmailed by Putin’s calculated threats, which in fact only show extreme failure and desperation on his part.
Autocrats can indeed be very dangerous when they are cornered because of their own mistakes. They can become unstable. I believe in never saying “never” when speaking about what dictators may or may not do. I doubt, however, that Putin is seriously thinking about going nuclear because he knows that such a move would much more likely bring about his own and Russia’s downfall as a federation than even a protracted and unsuccessful war.
If anything, by suggesting the possibility of using nuclear weapons, Putin may have advanced the date of his removal from power. I believe it is now more likely than not that his circle will remove him. His talk of going nuclear is a far greater threat to keeping the Russian Federation together than anything else. The Russian federal state may fall apart sooner rather than later as his current allies and rivals see the opportunity to save themselves and enhance their power in their regional or economic fiefdoms.
Contrary to what the right-leaning pundits may think, Putin will not use nuclear weapons against the U.S. or other NATO countries because it would be the end for him and for Russia. But in the improbable event that he manages to order the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine before being ousted, his end would come just as quickly, and the Russian Federation would not survive it.
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Ted Lipien is a journalist, writer, and media freedom advocate. He was Voice of America’s Polish service chief during Poland’s struggle for democracy and VOA’s acting associate director. He also served briefly in 2020-2021 as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s president.
