The latest Quinnipiac poll in Virginia has Hillary Clinton leading Chris Christie by a statistically insignificant 42 percent to 41 percent. It also has Clinton leading Rand Paul 49 to 40. Christie leads Biden by a whopping 47 to 35 and Paul leads Biden by a statistically insignificant 43 to 42.

Virginia has been the nation’s bellwether state in the last two presidential elections, voting 53 percent to 46 percent for Barack Obama in 2008 and 51 to 47 for Obama in 2012. No other state came closer to the national averages in either election, though Virginia is by no means demographically identical to the nation as a whole (as has been the case with bellwethers over the years).