Though Donald Trump is maintaining a healthy lead in polls for the Republican presidential nomination, there is mounting evidence that he has already peaked.

It’s true that Trump has defied many predictions up to this point in his candidacy. Bill Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard (which has the same ownership as the Washington Examiner), has for weeks been hypothesizing that Trump had peaked, only to see him remain at the top of the crowded GOP field. But the data suggest that Kristol may be on to something.