ARE DEMOCRATS DOOMED? In the last few days, there has been some buzz among Democrats that maybe, after all the talk about being headed toward defeat in this year’s midterm elections, they might not be in such bad shape after all. For four reasons: One, redistricting has gone better than expected in some important states. Two, job creation has been robust. Three, COVID cases are falling. And four, Republicans might blow themselves up.
Longtime Democratic pollster and strategist Stanley Greenberg told Politico that while he is “not very optimistic” about his party’s chances of keeping control of the House, he could still put together a victory scenario: “I see the strength of the economy and worker leverage coming to matter late,” Greenberg said. “Prices are supposed to edge down. Democrats will pass Build Back Better in some form and government funding that shows a lot of visible benefit for families — all opposed by Republicans. The tax on corporations and Republicans fighting them is a huge potential motivator. Then, the January 6 findings get reported and the partisan polarization and cues kick in — producing surprising turnout from Democrats.”
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And then — bingo! — Democrats win. But there is clearly a lot of wishful thinking going on in a scenario like that. Yes, Republicans might indeed find a way to blow themselves up; they are always capable of it. And yes, redistricting has gone better than even some Democrats predicted. But it’s not enough to reverse any significant losses in November. Yes, the job numbers — 467,000 new jobs in January and big upward revisions of the numbers for November and December — are good, but in the public’s mind, they do not cancel out deep anxieties about inflation. And yes, COVID cases are falling, but if there is any area where everyone should be humble, it is predicting what will happen next with COVID.
The fact is, there are more factors pointing toward a Democratic loss than a Democratic win. Here are five:
1. The price of gas. Use it as a stand-in for the larger issue of inflation. The price of gas, and inflation in general, is not an issue like guns or abortion that resonates particularly with one party. It is an everybody issue, and the indications are it will hurt Democrats in November.
2. Joe Biden’s current job approval rating. The president’s job approval rating is a key factor in midterm election results. And just today, Biden’s approval dipped below 40% for the first time in the RealClearPolitics average of polls: 39.8% approve, versus 54.4% disapprove. Just remember this from a recent newsletter: “The Gallup organization has looked at midterm results going back to 1946. In elections where the president’s job approval rating was above 50%, Gallup said in a 2018 article, his party’s midterm losses in the House averaged 14 seats. But in elections where the president’s job approval rating was below 50%, the losses averaged 37 seats.”
3. Joe Biden’s future job approval rating. Yes, Biden is low now, but might his approval rise in coming months, enough to rescue his party in November? That is very, very unlikely. “Looking back more than 70 years, there hasn’t been a single president who substantially improved his job approval rating from late January/early February of a midterm election year to late October/early November,” wrote elections analyst Nathan Gonzales. Instead, Gonzales noted that most presidents’ job approval rating actually fell in the months preceding midterm elections.
4. The generic ballot. This is the classic question on a poll: If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democrat to represent you in Congress? Over the years, Democrats have almost always had the lead in the generic ballot question. But about three months ago, the GOP took the lead and is now up by four points, 47.6% to 43.6%, in the RealClearPolitics average.
5. The direction of the country. Another poll staple is the question of whether one believes the country is on the right track or whether it has gotten off course. Most of the time, most people believe the country is off course in some way or another. But the number has gotten quite high recently — about two-thirds believe the country is on the wrong track. That points toward change.
The bottom line is that all of these issues look bad for Democrats. And all involve, in one way or another, Joe Biden. “The midterms are about one thing and one thing only,” says a Republican strategist. “And that is a referendum on the incumbent president — end of story.” As long as Biden remains the key factor in the midterm elections, Democratic chances are not good, no matter the spin.
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