The serial indictments of former President Donald Trump last spring sent his support among Republicans and some independents into the stratosphere. For the first time, he topped President Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, a lead he maintained from early April through July. Although Biden enjoyed a brief reprieve over the summer, Trump recaptured the lead in September and has held on to it ever since.

This is significant. Biden led Trump in the polling averages for the entire 2020 election cycle. The size of Biden’s lead fluctuated between 4.3 and 10.2 points. On the eve of the election, Biden was up by 7.2 points.