Could an economic surprise doom Biden? Here’s what election models say

Published May 17, 2024 7:00am ET



A range of economic developments in the coming months could tip the presidential election toward or away from President Joe Biden. 

Biden is at the mercy of economic factors, such as income growth, inflation, changes in interest rates, and fluctuations in gas prices, because the presidential contest appears to be quite close at the moment. Normally, it would take seismic economic shifts to alter the course of a presidential election within the last year, as perceptions of the president’s handling of economic affairs have hardened by that point. 

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