The People’s Liberation Army of China has begun two days of military exercises around Taiwan. The exercises are a reaction against new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s pro-sovereignty inaugural address this week. They also seek to mobilize popular Chinese will against Taiwan’s sovereignty. The exercises likely have the additional purpose of expressing Beijing’s deep dissatisfaction with escalating Taiwan-focused exercises between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines.

At a military operational level, these exercises are clearly designed to drain the morale and readiness of Taiwan’s manifestly underfunded and insufficiently capable military. Still, it is exceptionally unlikely that China is preparing to invade Taiwan in the immediate future. That invasion is highly likely to occur before this decade is out, but not in the immediate future. This timeline concern bears note because of suggestions by some that these exercises are a cover for a looming invasion. Global Press claims, for example, that sources at China’s Xinhua state media outlet and the Chinese defense ministry have told it that China will invade Taiwan in “early June.”