A MAJOR DEVELOPMENT in post-Soviet affairs recently occurred when Heidar Aliyev, the ailing octogenarian leader of oil-rich Azerbaijan, ceded authority to his son Ilham. Although the dynastic aspect of this transition is less notorious than Saddam Hussein’s clan or Syria’s Assad family, it is nonetheless a regionally significant event. Surrounded by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, a bumpy transition period in Azerbaijan poses a grave challenge to Western policy planning. Azerbaijan is a less repressive society than many of the other ex-Soviet republics. It has a vocal political opposition and an independent media–both of which are virtually nonexistent in the other “Stans.” But these bright spots belie the nation’s authoritarian infrastructure. Corruption permeates the system, and many core democratic concepts, such as the rule of law, are little more than fanciful phrases. While the handover signals a transitional phase in Azerbaijan’s administrative development, will progress and stability inevitably proceed under family rule?

Recent history doesn’t paint a promising picture. Azerbaijan’s energy wealth and geostrategic location are both blessing and burden. For the 41-year-old Ilham, whom a recent news analysis criticized for lacking “his father’s charisma, political skills, contacts, experience, stature, intelligence and authority,” questions abound as to whether he can handle this inheritance. Filling the shoes of what one analyst called a “larger than life” figure will be the criteria by which Ilham is judged.