Seeking ways to deter U.S. support for Ukraine, Russia is pursuing a strategy of dangled escalation. Russia does not want a major confrontation with the United States, but it does want to encourage the Biden administration and Americans to believe that continued U.S. support for Ukraine is far riskier than it is beneficial.

In that context, influential Russian propagandists and military bloggers are now hinting that Russian President Vladimir Putin might order the downing of a U.S. drone over the Black Sea. They claim a U.S. drone was recently forced to return to its base after its flight path was intercepted by a Russian jet. And while Putin makes decisions without great regard for his hot air propagandists, recent events likely make a drone downing more appealing to Putin.