Iraqis went to the polls on May 12, and the preliminary results are now in: Prime Minister Haider Abadi fared more poorly than expected, behind Badr Corps head Hadi al-Ameri’s Fatih (“Conquest”) coalition and surprise winner Iraqi populist Muqtada al-Sadr. Also doing surprisingly well, albeit farther down the list, is Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iranian-backed offshoot responsible for the murder of U.S. servicemen inside Iraq. Former Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, who often sells himself as a coalition-building secularist, did poorly. But does that mean Iran won, or that Muqtada al-Sadr will really be the kingmaker as the Washington Post has suggested? Or that Iran is the victor?

Here, the answer is no and no. Iraq’s elections are not winner-take-all. Many figures run separately but come together in the post-election shuffle to form a coalition. Abadi’s poorer-than-expected showing undercuts his negotiating position, but if he re-combines with all factions of his Da`wa party, he is still kingmaker.