As research on state abortion bans emerges, the national debate deflects from abortion’s moral permissibility and toward its raw outcomes. It’s a move to which the states’ rights framework lends itself.

Birth rate data from 2023 are the principal lens through which to track changes since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. The total fertility rate in the U.S. continued its decrease of 2% per year, to 1.6 births per woman in 2023, while the total number of live births hit a 40-year low of 3.6 million. At the same time, the New York Times reports “a 2.8 percent increase in births relative to what would have been expected without a ban.” Births among Hispanic, black, unmarried, or non-college-educated women all rose over one percentage point more than their white, married, or college-educated counterparts.