Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are prepping for battle, as their campaigns embrace the possibility of the Republican nomination turning on a duel between two Cuban American senators who represent the next generation of the party.
Texas’ Cruz, 45 next month, and Florida’s Rubio, 44, are surging in public opinion polls and steadily amassing financial and organizational support. Ben Carson and Donald Trump still pace the field. But Cruz and Rubio have separated from the rest of the pack and are now within striking distance in key early primary states. Both campaigns like their positioning less than 90 days from first votes; both believe a Cruz vs. Rubio finale works to their benefit.
“The difference is, who went to Washington and stood up, not just to Democrats, but to his own party, on issue after issue?” a Cruz ally told the Washington Examiner this week. “The other fatal problem for Marco is ‘gang of eight’ support. People don’t trust him.”
“Rubio is able to play in both lanes,” a Rubio ally countered. “He is an anti-establishment champion who took on the establishment in 2010 and won. But at same time he’s able to speak to more mainstream conservatives and pull votes from both wings. That’s the big crux, especially given fact that both have strong conservative voting records. Cruz is stuck pulling from one lane of voters.”
The Cruz campaign believes the Texan fits the mold of political outsider that Republican primary voters want better than Rubio does. Cruz supporters tout his superior third quarter fundraising, claim a better grassroots ground game and the advantage of the Southern states, including Texas, voting as a bloc on March 1. They also insist that Rubio is vulnerable for negotiating the bipartisan, comprehensive immigration reform bill that cleared the Senate in 2013.
The Rubio campaign believes the Floridian appeals to more Republicans than Cruz. His ceiling of support is higher because he can attract votes from across the ideological spectrum of the party. Rubio supporters say he is sharper on foreign policy, and relates better to average, middle class Republicans. They also contend that Rubio has been fully vetted, but that Cruz has yet to endure the intense scrutiny that comes with being a front-runner.
In a CNN interview on Thursday, Cruz swiped at Rubio, tagging him as moderate. “In past cycles, there’s been a consensus moderate choice early on,” he said. “Look, I think Marco is certainly formidable in that lane.” Cruz continued: “Once it gets down to a head-to-head contest between a conservative and a moderate,” he said. “I think the conservative wins.” The Rubio campaign did not immediately respond to a request to comment on Cruz’ remarks.
They’re both still chasing Carson, who earned fame as a renowned pediatric neurosurgeon at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore; and Trump, the billionaire New York developer and reality television star. Carson led the RealClearPolitics.com average of national GOP polls, with 24.8 percent, followed by Trump at 24.6 percent, Rubio at 11 percent and Cruz at 8.8 percent. The rest of the field is sitting at 5.8 percent or lower.
But the energy boosting Cruz and Rubio toward the top is undeniable.
The senators joined eight other Republicans last weekend for a candidate cattle call at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines. All received healthy receptions. None, however, received the enthusiastic standing ovations on the front and back ends of their speeches that Cruz and Rubio did. And, none were mobbed afterward the way they were, as likely caucus-goers jostled for a picture with, or autograph and handshake from, the two rising stars.
“I want somebody that’s going to be a reformer that will change the system, not manage it,” said insurance industry executive Craig Clark, 52, of Des Moines, who plans to caucus on Feb. 1 and has narrowed his choices to Cruz and Rubio. “I think we need to deal with our debt seriously; I think we need to take national defense seriously. I think it’s time we fix our immigration — the federal government has to have a functional immigration system, we don’t have that now.”
Their respective meet-and-greet crowds were so big, they never abated, and campaign staff was forced to pull them from the Iowa fairgrounds so that they could honor their next scheduling commitment. The latest polling average in Iowa had Cruz and Rubio tied at 12 percent each, behind Carson and Trump. Rubio ranks first, and Cruz third, in the Examiner’s presidential power rankings.
Cruz and Rubio arrived in the Senate in similar fashion. In 2010, Rubio challenged Gov. Charlie Crist, who was then a Republican, in the GOP Senate primary, against the party establishment’s wishes. Rubio went from being an afterthought to beating Crist so badly he left the Republican Party and ran as an independent. In 2012, Cruz went from being a nobody to defeating Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the GOP primary, also contrary to party establishment preferences.
They senators both sport conservative voting records — Cruz’s lifetime score with the Club for Growth is 96 percent, Rubio’s is 93 percent — and share an ethnic heritage and similar family histories. They consider themselves friends.
Rubio’s parents emigrated to the U.S. from Cuba in search of more freedom and opportunity; Cruz’ father did the same (his mother is U.S.-born and raised in Delaware.) Early in the 2016 sweepstakes, both were given long odds — Rubio because former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ran, eating into the senator’s natural base of support, Cruz because his appeal and experience on the national stage were limited. Now, both are generally lauded as running the better campaigns of the cycle.
Independent super PACs that are flush with cash also support both candidates.
In a contest that boils down to the two of them, money and organization could make the difference. In that case, Cruz likes where he sits. He raised $12.2 million in the third quarter, more than doubling Rubio’s $5.7 million. Cruz also closed the period with more cash in the bank than his rival, reporting $13.8 million to Rubio’s $11 million. Organizationally, Cruz likes to highlight:
- State chairman in 17 states
- Organizations set up in 19 states
- Over 700 state team leaders
- 5,927 volunteers signed up in the first four primary and caucus states
- County chairmen in all 171 counties of the first four primary and caucus states
“We are seeing conservatives unite behind our campaign at a level that is just, it is just growing everyday,” Cruz told reporters in Iowa last week. “In every election cycle, there are candidates that shoot to the top and then fall down just as quickly, our strategy has always been to build on a foundation of rock and not on sand.”
The Rubio campaign is organized around the same principle of doing everything it can to avoid peaking too soon. It has not been as forthcoming as Cruz regarding field organization metrics, as has been its practice since launching in March. But team Rubio confirms that there are now 70 paid staff on the campaign, half of whom work in the field, while pointing to the experience and past success of its in-state consultants and volunteers as evidence that its candidate is competitive.
Financially, Rubio allies are confident that his fundraising is set for a dramatic uptick, despite the difficulty of soliciting funds during the fourth quarter, which coincides with holidays. Sources not permitted to speak for the campaign said Rubio has spent months cultivating relationships with major donors and bundlers. That work might not have shown up in the most recent Federal Election Commission filing, but they expect to see results when the next reports are publicized in January.
For instance, just last week, Republican mega donor and bundler Paul Singer, a New York financier, endorsed Rubio’s campaign. That puts Singer’s network behind Rubio, and could generate hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars in donations. Rubio, who has faced questions about the strength of his operation from opponents, said his campaign is on track for a strong finish.
“A campaign is not about how many staffers you have, it’s about how many supporters you have, how many people turn out on the night of the caucus to support you,” Rubio told reporters last week while campaigning in the Hawkeye State. “I’m very proud of the work we’re [doing] here and the campaign that we’re building and I’m confident we’re going to have the resources and the organization we need to turn supporters into voters.”
