It’s commonplace to declare Donald Trump the front-runner in all or nearly all of the Super Tuesday states. But we don’t really know that. The polling from many of those states is scant, out of date, or nonexistent, making it impossible to say with any certainty who is leading.

The Super Tuesday states are Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vermont, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Alaska. In only two of them, Alabama and Massachusetts, do we have even one poll done even partially after last Thursday’s debate. And in some states, the polling is much, much older.