Latino Democrats think abortion will stop the party from losing Hispanic voters in the midterm elections. It is yet another case of wishful thinking.
Writing for NBC News, Suzanne Gamboa says Latino Democrats have “insisted that the fight for abortion rights will help them rally Hispanic and other voters.” Tucson Mayor Regina Romero and Arizona state Sens. Raquel Teran and Martin Quezada (who is running for state treasurer) are among those banking on abortion to boost Democrats in the state. “This is going to help us deliver a message that we are the party that welcomes Latinos and is fighting for freedoms,” Teran said.
But the chances that the Supreme Court decision overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion regime will save Democrats are bleak — including, and maybe especially, among Hispanics. During the 2020 election, Hispanic voters ranked abortion as their 12th-most important issue. Double the amount of Hispanics ranked the economy as a top issue (80%) compared to abortion (41%). And when Hispanics do consider abortion, it is not at all clear that they favor Democrats’ position of making it widely available, with one study characterizing them as the ethnic group holding “the most complex and least supportive views on the legality of abortion.”
Given that the economy is worse now than it was in 2020, one can imagine that abortion isn’t too high on the priority list of Hispanics or any other demographic outside of privileged liberal white women.
A Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday seems to show exactly that. President Joe Biden’s approval rating once again hit a new low, with 31% approval to 60% disapproval. Among Hispanics, the numbers are far worse. Just 19% approve of Biden’s performance, with 70% giving him a thumbs down. This is almost perfectly mirrored by their approval of Biden’s handling of the economy, which is underwater 19%-72%.
Hispanics also back Republicans on the generic House ballot 42%-40% and prefer Republicans for the Senate 45%-42%. In terms of favorability, Hispanics prefer former President Donald Trump (38% favorable) to Biden (again, sitting at 19%). Currently, abortion ranks third as the most urgent issue for Hispanics at 9%. Unsurprisingly, inflation tops the list at 41%.
Democrats consistently overestimate how abortion will help them in campaigns. With Biden’s approval in free fall and Republicans making gains among Hispanics over the last several years, it’s not clear that any issue could magically reverse those trends and save Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. It is clear, though, that abortion won’t be their Get Out of Jail Free card among Hispanics or anyone else.
