Sen. John Warner, R-Va., is expected to announce today that he will not seek re-election, Republican officials said Thursday.
According to GOP campaign and congressional sources, the 80-year-old Warner has informed them he will retire when his fifth term ends at the end of next year. Political analysts, however, cautioned that Warner may not come to a final decision until he steps up to the microphone at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, where he is scheduled to appear at 2 p.m.
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“He could wake up in the morning and change his mind,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. “With politicians, it is never over until they sing, they’re fat and they are the fat lady.”
Some congressional aides said Virginia’s senior senator could be hoping for a last-minute intervention by GOP leaders who want him to run again, but others say he has made up his mind not to seek a sixth term.
One top GOP aide described the decision to retire as “solid.”
Warner has hardly been acting like a senator headed for retirement, though his fundraising efforts have been nearly dormant.
He recently traveled to Iraq and subsequently held a news conference in which he called for President Bush to start bringing troops home by Christmas.
Warner’s retirement would give Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., an opening to move to the upper chamber, though he will likely be challenged for the GOP nomination. Davis is a political powerhouse in Northern Virginia, but many conservative Republicans in the southern and western parts of the state view him as unacceptably moderate.
Former Gov. Jim Gilmore has said he may run for the GOP nomination, and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Robert McDonnell are also possible candidates. Unlike Davis, all three have won statewide office and are considered staunch conservatives. Davis professes to be unfazed by competition from outside his home base.
“We have a lot of support around the state and in the party,” Davis told The Examiner last month. “We are going out and seeing what people are saying. We have donated a lot of money to candidates in Virginia and have a lot of friends.”
Davis has not said he would definitely run if Warner retires, and one knowledgeable Capitol Hill Republican said Davis would wait “a few days if not even a few weeks” to announce his plans.
Davis’ popularity in vote-rich Northern Virginia, a region that has pushed Democrats to victory in recent statewide elections, may not help him in a nomination fight. The state GOP’s executive committee will decide in the fall whether to select a nominee in a primary open to all Virginia voters, or by a convention, which would be limited to die-hard Republicans who tend to oppose moderates.
“A convention is probably more challenging for Tom Davis than a primary,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the University of Virginia’s Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “The more conservative candidates will probably have an easier time rallying the troops.”
