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President Donald Trump unwisely launched this war on Iran and is now seeking a diplomatic off-ramp. As he put it on Monday, “I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion. … We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.” Trump added that he favors an “internal” leader taking power in the vein of Delcy Rodriguez replacing Nicolas Maduro as Venezuelan president.
The key, then, is for Trump to create an off-ramp that maximizes U.S. and allied interests. Counterintuitively, that means no immediate ceasefire. The United States is militarily engaged, and Trump can’t just pull the plug on strikes and then credibly claim victory. Doing so would give Iran a priceless political victory. Indeed, Iran might well keep fighting in such a scenario.
Instead, Trump should focus on ending this war quickly but also well. That means not immediately obsessing over the midterm congressional elections. The Trump administration’s chaotic messaging underlines its domestic political fears in this regard. The administration worries that war-related concerns over gas prices and international instability will see Republicans punished come November. And thus, Trump will become a lame-duck president.
EUROPEAN DEFENSE NEGLECT UNDERLINED BY ABYSMAL IRAN WAR RESPONSE
Trump’s big problem is that Iran clearly senses his fear. Correspondingly, the regime’s forces are doubling down on attacks on energy facilities belonging to America’s Arab allies and on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint. These attacks hit Trump’s pressure points.
Still, Trump must remember that he has three more years in office and that more national security challenges lie ahead. And if he is to retain his deterrent credibility as a forceful adversary, Trump must show both U.S. adversaries and allies that he has the patience to persist even with unpopular military operations. It is for this reason that Trump must deny Iran a victory in its effort to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran’s attacks on energy assets pressure Trump into giving up without a credible off-ramp, Trump will show the world that economic pressure makes him blink himself into surrender.
That doesn’t mean, however, that Trump should pursue maximalist objectives such as regime change or the full destruction of the Iranian military. Full-scale military action beyond two more weeks will likely carry a strategic cost over benefit.
After all, this war has predictably failed to generate a popular armed uprising. Instead, Iran is now adopting a version of the 1812 Council at Fili strategy, dispersing its leaders and forces and biding its time. The regime is sitting, punished but patient, as the U.S. military runs out of easy targets. Continuing with military action beyond the heavy degradation of Iran’s nuclear, missile, and power projection forces would most likely fail to unseat the regime and lead only to Iranian state failure and civil war. And while that outcome might be in Israel’s interest, it would not be in America’s interest. The U.S. would have to manage the internationally reverberating humanitarian, security, and economic effects of that state failure. It might not mean nation-building, but it would certainly mean salvage operations.
There’s another reason Trump needs at least a moderately positive outcome here: This war has already incurred some undeniably heavy costs for the U.S.
U.S. casualties, though limited, obviously matter. But the war has also caused major disruption to the global economy and to the security of America’s Middle Eastern allies. It has also led to the anticipated prewar degradation of U.S. military readiness for a likely war with China. On that latter point, the U.S. cannot, as Trump claimed this week, simply “quadruple” the production of now depleted air defense munitions. Not until at least 2029. There are just too many supply chain bottlenecks. Moreover, China’s vast and growing drone, missile, and air force demands 10 times such an increased production rate — a quadrupled rate would help with Tomahawk and maritime variant and Patriot interceptors stocks, but would mean only 400 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors and 500 SM-6 class missiles a year.
To achieve a decent outcome, Trump mustn’t simply win the Strait of Hormuz battle. He must eliminate Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
The son of former leader Ali Khamenei is a hard-liner’s hard-liner. Following the death of his father and other family members, Mojtaba Khamenei now possesses a special theological and personal vendetta. Personal vendettas take on a holy quality in the regime’s Khomeinist ideology. Mojtaba Khamenei would use any ceasefire only to buy time for future, escalated threats, including of the nuclear kind. He would be a radioactive dirty bomb in waiting, the antithesis of a Delcy Rodriguez-style ideologue-pragmatist. His existence is incompatible with a favorable postwar picture.
Mojtaba Khamenei is in hiding. But he will have to engage in at least some limited public-facing activities. These will include recorded audio or video messages. Nor can Mojtaba Khamenei avoid Friday prayer-related activity in perpetuity without bringing into question the perception of his ordained rule. He can be found and targeted. And when he is, ensuing regime factionalism will follow. This will create new opportunities for diplomacy.
Any replacement for Mojtaba Khamenei must be a conservative that the hard-liners can swallow. But it needn’t be an impulsive ideologue. Ali Larijani, the secretary of the national security council, or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliamentary speaker, are possible replacements. Trump could then backchannel an offer of sanctions relief in return for verifiable concessions on Iran’s nuclear program. Although lost in the rhetoric of war, this regime remains profoundly concerned with its survival amid the long-term economic hardship of Iranians. Sanctions relief would help alleviate that hardship and reduce the regime’s paranoia. Nuclear diplomacy ultimately remains a feasible prospect.
PETE HEGSETH SHOULD DROP THE FLIPPANT BLUSTER
Yes, Iranian power-projection forces have been seriously weakened in this war. That’s very good news. But the continuation of this war beyond the Hormuz battle and the question of the supreme leader would run contrary to U.S. interests.
Iran may refuse to engage in diplomacy, thus forcing Trump to keep fighting. But the possibility of compromise allows Trump to broadcast his openness to continued fighting while simultaneously pursuing diplomacy.
