In late-March, Iranian missiles hit the Emirates Global Aluminium Al Taweelah aluminum site, which produces about 1.5 million metric tons, and Aluminium Bahrain site, which produces about 1.6 million-tons per year.

Both facilities have sustained significant damages and are major suppliers to the United States. EGA has said it may take up to a year to restore full production at its Al Taweelah smelter. 

Qatari aluminum smelter Qatalum also began shutting down in early March due to a shortage of natural gas, which is used for producing a large amount of electricity to power aluminum smelters. The company has noted that it could take six to 12 months to restart production. 

Ewa Manthey, commodity strategist at ING Groep NV, told the Washington Examiner via email that the aluminum supply is “exposed to geopolitics” because production and trade are highly concentrated in the Middle East and rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that has been effectively closed since the start of the war in late February. 

“Short disruptions can be absorbed, but prolonged shocks quickly tighten supply and lift physical premiums,” Manthey said. 

The price of aluminum has recently hit a four-year high after the attacks on the two key Middle East sites, with futures rising from $3,044 on Feb. 28 to $3,411 by April 1 after the attacks. 

Growing demand for aluminum is also playing a pivotal role in squeezing the supply chain.

Joe Quinn, executive director of the SAFE Center for Strategic Industrial Materials, told the Washington Examiner that demand for aluminum is increasing due to growing use in the transportation sector and energy transition. 

“You are never more than six feet away from aluminum,” Quinn said. 

Quinn said the U.S. relies heavily on aluminum sites in the Middle East, noting that not many countries produce aluminum. 

“The situation in Iran has become a lot more acute,” Quinn said. “We’re waiting for the damage reports to come out, but it seems to be indicating there could be, at the high end, 5 million metric tons are going to be taken off of the global supply globally in one day.” 

Quinn noted that it will take time to restore operations at the aluminum sites in the Middle East. For instance, once power is lost, molten aluminum quickly solidifies within hours and reheating needs to happen gradually.

However, global supplies of aluminum have been diminishing long before the war in Iran. 

China is one of the largest exporters of aluminum, but production has remained limited as it nears a self-imposed production cap intended to control oversupply and reduce emissions. Mozambique’s largest aluminum smelter closed last month due to a failure to secure energy. 

Then, Europe has become heavily reliant on aluminum from the Middle East as domestic production has dropped because of higher energy costs caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In 2024, the Middle East supplied close to 1.98 million tons to Europe, according to the International Aluminum Institute. It added that the share has likely grown further in 2025 due to restrictions on Russian materials. The European Union banned imports of aluminum wire, foil, and extruded products. 

Outside of the Middle East, Canada remains the U.S.’s largest supplier of aluminum, even though trade relations between the two countries have been tense. 

President Donald Trump last year imposed sweeping tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. As of 2024, nearly 3.2 million tons of aluminum were imported from Canada to the U.S. 

Recently, the White House modified tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper imports and products. The previous tariffs were based on how much metal like steel or aluminum was inside a product at a 50% rate. The administration’s changes now taxes the entire value of the product. 

For example, there will be a 25% tariff on finished products substantially made with imported steel, aluminum and copper. Then, rates for products almost or made entirely of aluminum, steel, or copper will be at 50%. The administration has imposed sweeping tariffs as a way to boost domestic production. 

However, domestic production of aluminum is very low, with only a few operating aluminum smelters in the U.S.

Earlier this year, EGA and Century Aluminum announced a proposed project to build a new aluminum smelter in Oklahoma. The proposed project is expected to produce 750,000 metric tons of aluminum per year. But it would take several years to build and begin production. 

Quinn noted that a decision on whether to move forward with the project is expected by the end of the year.

“We’ll know come Christmas, if the United States [is] serious about strengthening these securing supply chains for aluminum,” Quinn said.