In his second term, President Donald Trump’s reembrace of an old American axiom, “industrial capacity equals strategic power,” has secured over $5 trillion in reshored investment commitments from over 100 major companies. Some of it is new tech: Apple is reshoring iPhone supply chains and Silicon Valley is building new data centers all around the country. Some of it is “old”: the Big Three automakers are all increasing domestic production.
There is a consistent thread running through those somewhat disparate industries: copper. As the essential metal for electrification — it’s in power grids, semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, advanced weapons systems, and next-generation vehicles — copper powers both our industrial present and our industrial future. A nation that cannot independently produce, refine, and process enough copper is a nation that risks ceding industrial capacity, technology dominance, and national destiny.
Enter China. Through the 21st century, Beijing has pursued an aggressive strategy backed by state-directed investments and unfair subsidies to produce a new wave of copper smelting and refining capacity far beyond what the country’s domestic market justifies.
CHINA’S MINERAL MONOPOLY IS PUTTING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY AT RISK
China now dominates the global copper supply chain, accounting for approximately 80% of new copper and copper alloy fabrication capacity since 2019. About two-thirds of these plants make wire rod, giving China half of the world’s fabrication capacity, with more on the way. This control grants Beijing the leverage to hold U.S. supply chains hostage. Chinese dumping of undervalued copper products into the U.S. and manipulating the global marketplace is a constant risk. As recently as last month, Chinese bulk copper purchases caused prices to rise to their highest price in 16 years.
We have seen this playbook before. China used excess capacity in steel and aluminum to hollow out competitors and consolidate market share, leaving other nations scrambling to rebuild industries they once took for granted.
Copper appears to be following the same trajectory. But this time, China is not just a market mover. It’s a distinct national security threat.
China’s chokehold on copper is an unacceptable risk to American supply chain resilience and industrial capacity, specifically because copper is an indispensable material to both civilian infrastructure and national defense. Some analysts have even called China’s rare earth export controls, which were disastrous for American defense suppliers and automakers, a “dummy run” for future controls on copper. If ever implemented, such controls would prove far more disastrous and leave American manufacturers at Beijing’s mercy.
China’s copper dominance is indeed a generational challenge. But America can still produce a generational response. Thanks to Trump, America has imposed 50% Section 232 national security tariffs on semifinished products and copper-intensive derivatives, shielding our economy from undervalued copper products and dangerous foreign dependencies. Meanwhile, Trump’s efforts to kickstart critical mineral refining and production in the United States have elicited interest from companies like Amazon in purchasing U.S. copper output for the first time in over a decade.
But Washington can, and should, go further. Onshoring investment incentives and national security tariffs can be coupled with further protections for America’s copper industry assets, helping us keep our natural advantages over Beijing.
New research finds that America has the capacity to meet the annual rising copper demand through recycled high-quality copper scrap and raw copper mined in the U.S. and overseas. However, U.S. high-quality scrap is leaving the country at alarming rates as China looks to backfill its 60% domestic copper supply deficit through buying raw scrap in massive volumes from U.S. and European producers, which ultimately purpose these imports for manufacturing technologies that run counter to American interests.
To exploit this incredibly potent advantage, the Trump administration should impose new export controls or domestic sales requirements for high-quality copper scrap, allowing American copper producers to begin building more processing infrastructure around our domestic strengths. Reduced domestic supply of high-quality copper scrap causes underinvestment in semi-fabricated and fabricated copper product manufacturing and diminishes valuable feedstocks for domestic fabricators.
Relatedly, Trump was right to pause discussions around tariffs on refined copper and cathode as well. A recent ING Group report forecasts that until additional smelting capacity can come back online in the U.S. over the next few years, America will need access to foreign refined copper and cathode feedstocks to be able to meet surging demand for American-made copper products.
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL ALLOW COMPANIES TO APPLY FOR TARIFF REFUNDS
Lastly, further protecting American upstream copper producers through enhanced derivative inclusions and consistent valuation standards would accelerate the copper industry’s revitalization. Securing America’s copper supply is not about shielding inefficient producers. It is about preserving the foundation of an economy that depends on reliable access to critical materials.
The choice is straightforward. Washington can treat copper as just another commodity and accept the vulnerabilities that come with dependence. Or it can recognize copper for what it is: a strategic asset that demands a more strategic response.
Mick Mulvaney is the former White House chief of staff and congressman from South Carolina.
