Off the back of making threats toward Europe, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Thursday leveled a new nuclear threat at the world.
Iran’s enrichment of uranium, Rouhani said, now exceeds rates prior to the 2015 nuclear accord. This follows Iran’s recent announcement that it will no longer observe enrichment limits under the nuclear deal.
It’s a specific challenge to Israel because Iran is well aware of Israel’s red line. Were Iran to escalate its uranium enrichment to high levels determinant of weapons-grade material, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would order the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Netanyahu is less of a hawk than commonly presumed, but he must be taken at his word on this matter.
Israel views an Iranian nuclear weapon as a precursor to a second Holocaust. From Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on down, Iran’s leaders continually refer to Israel as a stain that must be scoured from the Earth. Beyond Iran’s typical deception, this threat is made real by Iran’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile research. And the problem for Israel is that even if a nuclear-armed Iran could be deterred in one moment, were Khamenei’s regime to face collapse, its calculation might change in the figurative and literal flash of a second. Israel fears that on the future day they face disposal by the Iranian people, the hard-liners might attempt to destroy Israel in a final act of outreach to God. The martyrdom ideology at the heart of Khomeinism means this is a very credible concern.
So, what next?
Well, fortunately, the European Union is finally waking up to Iran’s malfeasance and getting behind President Trump’s demand for an improved nuclear agreement. But while Rouhani is likely amenable to that discourse in the hope of dampening Iran’s growing protest movement, Khamenei and the hardliners won’t be. Instead, they’ll hope to scare the EU into new concessions and Trump into backing off from sanctions escalation. As part of this escalation approach, the Iranians will likely attempt a deniable successor attack to their recent missile strikes in Iraq.
Seeing as Khamenei is Iran’s unquestioned and ordained leader, we should expect things to get worse before they get better. But if they really get worse (say, if Khamenei decides to rush for a bomb or a stockpile of highly enriched uranium), then get ready for Israeli F-35s to load up with bunker-busting munitions.
