SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE: How do you end a war in which both sides are convinced they have already won, think they have all the cards, believe time — not to mention God — is on their side? And when both sides have mutually exclusive demands that they insist are nonnegotiable? That, to put it succinctly, is pretty much where things stand after 58 days of war between the United States and Iran. It’s not so much a test of wills as a battle of “won’ts,” as in both the U.S. and Iran won’t back down, won’t give in, won’t give up.
As Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Moscow today for “coordination and consultations” with “our Russian friends,” he blamed the “excessive demands” of President Donald Trump for the failure of the talks so far.
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In the latest Iranian proposal — passed to Washington through a Pakistani mediator — Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz in return for an end to the U.S blockade, with the nuclear issues pushed to a later date. Trump said last week he would not lift the blockade until Iran makes a full deal. “The blockade’s been unbelievably effective,” Trump told Fox News. “They can’t get any money.”
“I think we’re going to be stuck with some version of the status quo where the straits are closed, formal talks aren’t happening,” Richard Haass, president emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations, said on ABC. “Escalation makes no sense, neither side would benefit from it. We’re running out of targets.”
“Iran is conventionally weaker. Its military forces are somewhat weaker, but the cost, the economic cost, the cost to alliances, the cost to U.S. standing, American guarantees, the local partners in the Gulf, they’ve been hurt by this war,” Haass said. “It almost reminds me of Vietnam … The body counts. We’re winning in terms of the narrow military calculation, but in the larger, strategic sense, we’re losing this war.”
AMERICA’S ‘GROWING’ BLOCKADE OF IRAN IS ‘GOING GLOBAL’
CALL ME, MAYBE: On Saturday, Iranian negotiators snubbed the U.S. by visiting Pakistan for “very fruitful” discussions, and then departed, making clear they had no intention of meeting with the U.S. team of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. “Have yet to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy,” Araghchi posted on X.
In response, Trump snubbed them back, posting on Truth Social that he was canceling Witkoff and Kushner’s planned trip to Islamabad. “Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership.’ Nobody knows who is in charge, including them … If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!”
Later on Fox, Trump explained, “I told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, ‘Nope, you’re not making an 18-hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you’re not going to be making any more 18-hour flights to sit around talking about nothing.’”
TRUMP CANCELS WITKOFF AND KUSHNER’S TRIP TO PAKISTAN FOR IRAN NEGOTIATIONS
TRUMP COUNTING ON ‘EXPLODING’ OIL INFRASTRUCTURE TO BREAK IRAN: Trump believes, or has been told, that with Iran running out of storage space for its oil that it can’t export because of the U.S. blockade, it’s only a matter of days before Iran is forced to shut down its oil production, which risks long-term damage to the fields.
“When you have lines of vast amounts of oil pouring through your system, if for any reason that line is closed because you can’t continue to put it into containers or ships,” Trump told Fox News yesterday morning. “What happens is that line explodes from within, both mechanically and in the Earth. Something happens where it just explodes. They say they only have about three days left before that happens.”
Other experts say Iran is weeks, or even months, away from facing a critical situation with oil storage, and is showing no signs of capitulation.
“All the assumptions have been wrong here,” Wendy Sherman, chief U.S. negotiator with Iran back in 2015, said on ABC’s This Week. “The administration has not understood that this is a culture of resistance, and Iran is not about to give up ever the things that it says is part of its national identity.”
“We have actually a military standoff and quite frankly, what this requires is really tough diplomacy. There’s no question that the United States has a credible threat of force, but the blockade really blockades ourselves as well as Iran,” Sherman said. “The United States has to decide what it’s willing to do to get back to these talks and really begin some true diplomacy. You can’t do this in 20 hours, in one day. This is a very complex negotiation.”
“There is a way forward here,” Sherman said. “I could even imagine that we suspend the blockade. Iran suspends its closing of the Strait of Hormuz during a negotiation for some agreed period to see if progress can be made.”
On CNN, retired Adm. William McRaven, former U.S. Special Operations commander, said while Trump rightly sees the blockade as his best leverage, he should use it to end the current stalemate.
“If I were advising President Trump, I would say, look, take this opportunity to expand and open the ceasefire. Make it go a little longer. Tell the Iranians that you will lift the blockade if they will open the Straits of Hormuz. I think that would get them to the negotiating table,” McRaven said. “Lift the blockade because you can always flip a switch and put the blockade back in play.”
IRAN VOWS MASSIVE STRIKES IF OIL INFRASTRUCTURE ‘EXPLODES’ FROM US BLOCKADE
Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Cole Tomas Allen, the 31-year-old California tutor and amateur video game creator — who holds a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering and a master’s in computer science — is due in federal court this morning after his arrest Saturday night at the annual White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, at which President Trump was the honored guest.
Allen — who in an email to his family described himself as “Friendly Federal Assassin” — was wrestled to the ground after he burst through a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton where the dinner was underway in the hotel’s massive ballroom, packed with hundreds of journalism luminaries and senior administration officials, including top three of the top four in the line of succession to the president: the speaker of the House, the vice president, and the secretary of state.
Allen was armed with a shotgun, a pistol, and some knives, and when shots were fired in the outer lobby, sparking an evacuation of the president and his Cabinet, while the correspondents and other guests took cover under tables. In his email, obtained by the New York Post and labeled a “manifesto” by the media, Allen indicated he planned a mass shooting targeting “administration officials… prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest,” but curiously not FBI Director Kash Patel.
“We’re still looking into motivation, and that’s something that hopefully we’ll learn over the next couple of days,” acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said on CBS. “We do believe, based upon just a very preliminary start to understanding what happened, that he was targeting members of the administration. We don’t have specifics.”
Allen will initially be charged with assault of a federal officer, and using a firearm during a crime of violence, Blanche said. But as to additional charges, that will depend on what the investigation turns up in the coming days and weeks ahead.
Asked on CNN if it’s possible Allen could later be charged with attempted assassination of the president, Blanche replied, “Oh, absolutely.”
“The guy is a sick guy, when you read his manifesto. So, he hates Christians. That’s one thing for sure. He hates Christians,” Trump told Fox News Sunday morning. “So he was a very troubled guy.”
CORRESPONDENTS’ DINNER SHOOTER MANIFESTO RIPS TRUMP AS ‘PEDOPHILE, RAPIST, AND TRAITOR’
ALSO TODAY: THE KING AND I: President Donald Trump will welcome King Charles III, the king of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and Queen Camilla to the White House at 4:15 p.m. Eastern time. First lady Melania Trump is scheduled to give the royal highnesses a tour of the new White House-themed beehive in the Rose Garden.
In recent weeks, Trump has been engaged in a war of words with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for failing to join his war with Iran, while belittling NATO as a “paper tiger,” and as a leaked Pentagon email suggested the U.S. may just reassess whether Argentina might have a legitimate claim to the Falkland Islands, which Britain went to war over in 1982.
“I am very, very disappointed in NATO, because they weren’t there,” Trump told Fox News yesterday. However, as for the King, “He’s a great guy. He’s really a fantastic person and a tremendous representative.”
“He’s got a problem with — as you know, that very well-documented problem with his health,” Trump told Fox News anchor Jacqui Heinrich. “He’s a friend of mine for a long time. So he’s coming. And we’re going to have a great time. And he represents his nation like nobody else can do it.”
In an appearance on CBS’s Face the Nation, the British ambassador to the U.S. downplayed the idea that King Charles would be on any fence-mending mission, noting the king reigns, but does not rule.
“The extraordinary thing in the British constitution, of course, is the king is above politics,” said Sir Christian Turner. “He’s never given an interview, which I have to remind people, because, of course, he’s the head of state, but he’s not the head of government.”
“We had a small difference of opinion in 1776. We’ve been through that. We’ve come a very long way,” Turner added.
KING CHARLES III TRIP TO US WILL ‘PROCEED AS PLANNED’ DESPITE WHCA DINNER SHOOTING
‘MILITARILY TOP SECRET BALLROOM’: Trump wasted no time citing the thwarted attack on the White House Correspondents’ dinner as a rationale for expediting construction of his pet project, a capacious, ornate ballroom where the East Wing of the White House used to be.
“This event would never have happened with the Militarily Top Secret Ballroom currently under construction at the White House. It cannot be built fast enough!” Trump posted on Truth Social. “While beautiful, it has every highest level security feature there is plus, there are no rooms sitting on top for unsecured people to pour in, and is inside the gates of the most secure building in the World, The White House.”
The project has been stalled by a federal court ruling that said Trump needed Congress’s permission for the massive alterations, noting that, as president, he is the steward of the White House, not the owner. “The ridiculous Ballroom lawsuit, brought by a woman walking her dog, who has absolutely No Standing to bring such a suit, must be dropped, immediately.”
And at his behest, the Justice Department dutifully wrote a demand letter to the National Trust for Historic Preservation calling for it to “drop its frivolous lawsuit” 9 a.m. this morning, “in light of the assassination attempt on President Trump,” arguing the attempt “once again proves the ballroom is essential for the safety and security of the president.”
The augment glosses over the fact that the Correspondents’ Dinner was not a White House event, so would not have been held in the ballroom had it been built. Not to mention that most of the events Trump attends when he appears in public — whether speeches or UFC matches — are not within the safety of the White House compound.
DOJ CALLS ON NATIONAL TRUST TO DROP LAWSUIT AGAINST TRUMP BALLROOM AFTER DINNER SHOOTING
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump says correspondents’ dinner gunman ‘hates Christians,’ motive was ‘religious’
Washington Examiner: Trump dinner shooting was targeting administration officials, authorities believe
Washington Examiner: Correspondents’ dinner shooter manifesto rips Trump as ‘pedophile, rapist, and traitor’
Washington Examiner: What to know about Cole Thomas Allen, the Trump dinner shooting suspect
Washington Examiner: Trump says dinner shooting justifies White House ballroom: ‘Cannot be built fast enough’
Washington Examiner: DOJ calls on National Trust to drop lawsuit against Trump ballroom after dinner shooting
Washington Examiner: Trump clashes with 60 Minutes host over shooter manifesto allegations
Washington Examiner: Trump cancels Witkoff and Kushner’s trip to Pakistan for Iran negotiations
Washington Examiner: Iran vows massive strikes if oil infrastructure ‘explodes’ from US blockade
Washington Examiner: America’s ‘growing’ blockade of Iran is ‘going global’
Washington Examiner: Trump raises pressure on Iran with new sanctions on oil shadow fleet
Washington Examiner: US intercepts sanctioned Iranian ‘shadow fleet’ vessel in Arabian Sea
Washington Examiner: Can Trump secure a deal ‘far better’ than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal?
Washington Examiner: What happens the day after tomorrow in Iran?
Washington Examiner: NATO allies respond to Pentagon memo allegedly floating punishments for uncooperative members
Washington Examiner: Russia’s Communists channel their ancestors, evoke 1917 in warning to Putin over economy
Washington Examiner: Viktor Orban will leave Parliament after election defeat
Washington Examiner: US allows Venezuela to pay legal fees for Maduro’s case in New York
Washington Examiner: Cao vows to accelerate shipbuilding as acting Navy secretary
Washington Examiner: Space Force doles out contracts for space-based interceptors as part of Golden Dome
Washington Examiner: King Charles III to US will ‘proceed as planned’ despite WHCA dinner shooting
Washington Examiner: Jeffries blames House GOP for stalling DHS funding over ICE after WHCD shooting
Washington Examiner: Texas defeats Houston’s play to stop helping ICE, align with ‘sanctuary’ cities
Washington Examiner: Immigration groups that want mass deportations blame Big Business for delay
Washington Examiner: Service, sweat, and sacrifice: The Manion WOD at the Marine Corps Memorial
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Starmer and Macron underline European impotence with Hormuz naval plan
AP: US says it’s hunting for explosive mines in latest push to open the Strait of Hormuz
Axios: Iran offers U.S. deal to reopen strait but postpone nuclear talks
Politico: Senate Armed Services Chair: Trump Should Resume Strikes on Iran
NBC News: Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known
New York Times: Europe Prepares for a Longer War in Ukraine, With No Strategy to End It
Washington Post: Mood in Russia turns bleak as war in Ukraine drags on and economy suffers
Wall Street Journal: Opinion: The Iran War Marks the End of ‘Escalation Management’
CBS 60 Minutes: Trump “wasn’t worried” during White House Correspondents’ Dinner
Washington Post: Correspondents’ dinner lacked highest security level despite presence of top officials
The Atlantic: We Cannot Harden the World Against Every Attacker
The Hill: US Military Kills 2 ‘Narco-Terrorists’ in Eastern Pacific Strike
DefenseScoop: US Prioritizes Mine-Clearing Ops After Trump Makes ‘Shoot and Kill’ Warning to Iran
Defense News: Three’s Company: Trio of US Carriers Operating in Middle East for First Time in Decades
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Plans to Keep B-1s Through 2037, Fly B-2s Longer
Defense One: China Has ‘Deliberate, Industrial-Scale Campaigns’ to Steal US AI models, White House Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Reveals $3.2B in Space-Based Interceptor Awards for Golden Dome
Wall Street Journal: War Buoys Arms Makers’ Sales, but Not Their Stocks
Breaking Defense: ‘Clear Divide’ in Military Readiness for Countries on NATO’s Eastern Flank: Report
Breaking Defense: Lockheed Limbo in Lima? Firm Says Peru Is Buying F-16s, but Questions Remain
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Bill Would Add Fighters to Air Force, Improve Aircrew Retention
Task & Purpose: Special Operations Command Lays Out High-Tech Wish List
Air & Space Forces Magazine: We’ll Bring You Home: USAF’s Unwritten Contract with Every Combat Pilot
THE CALENDAR:
MONDAY | APRIL 27
8:45 a.m. 801 Allen Y. Lew Pl. NW — Securing America’s Future Energy Summit, with Michael Duffey, undersecretary defense for acquisition and sustainment; Widad Whitman, head of supply chain security at the Energy Department https://safesummit.org/
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: beginning at 9 a.m., on “Navigating Lebanon’s Multiple Crises,” with Lebanese Minister of Social Affairs Haneen Sayed https://www.csis.org/events/navigating-lebanons-multiple-crises
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW— Brookings Institution Center for Asia Policy Studies discussion: “Power, religion, and ideology in North Korea,” with Jonathan Cheng, China bureau chief, Wall Street Journal; and Jung Pak, associate fellow, Vrije Universiteit Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy; and Andrew Yeo, senior fellow, Brookings Foreign Policy Program and Brookings Center for Asia Policy Studies and Brookings chair in Korea studies https://www.brookings.edu/events/power-religion-ideology-nk/
3:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “The Department of Defense missile defense activities in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Marc Berkowitz, assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein, direct reporting program manager for Golden Dome for America; Air Force Lt. Gen. Heath Collins, director, Missile Defense Agency; and Army Lt. Gen. Francisco Lozano, portfolio acquisition executive, Fires at the U.S. Army http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
4 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The Future of the Gulf: Commerce and Security in the Middle East After Operation Epic Fury,” with Jared Cohen, president of global affairs, Goldman Sachs https://www.hudson.org/events/future-gulf-commerce-security
5:30 p.m. 805 21st St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs annual Walter Roberts Lecture, “Has America Lost Its Voice?” with Bay Fang, CEO of Radio Free Asia; Jeff Gedmin, CEO of Middle East Broadcasting Networks; former U.S. Agency for Global Media Deputy Director Jeffrey Trimble; and Jamie Fly, CEO of Freedom House https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/annual-walter-roberts-lecture
TUESDAY | APRIL 28
TBA House Chamber — U.S. House of Representatives joint meeting with the U.S. Senate to receive an address from King Charles III, The King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
8:45 a.m. 515 Colshire Dr., McLean, Virginia — Mitre Corporation summit: “Beyond Barriers: Acquisition on a War Footing,” with Michael Duffey, undersecretary defense for acquisition and sustainment; and Air Force Gen. Dale White, director, Defense Department Critical Major Weapon Systems https://www.mitre.org/focus-areas/defense-intelligence/beyond-barriers
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The posture of the U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Cyber Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Derrick Anderson, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict; Katherine Sutton, assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy; Adm. Frank Bradley, commander, U.S. Special Operation Command; and Army Gen. Joshua Rudd, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, director, National Security Agency and chief of the Central Security Service http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 2167 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing: “Review of the Coast Guard’s FY2027 Budget Request.” http://transportation.house.gov
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “What To Do About Cuba?” with Michael Bustamante, associate professor of history at the University of Miami; former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Ricardo Zuniga, founding partner of Dinamica Americas; and Aaron David Miller, senior fellow, CEIP American Statecraft Program https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/04/what-to-do-about-cuba
10:15 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Belgium’s defense minister on the future of transatlantic security relations,” with Belgium Minister of Defense and Foreign Trade Theo Francken; and Jorn Fleck, senior director, Atlantic Council Europe Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/belgiums-defense-minister
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 29
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of Defense FY2027 Budget Request,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine http://www.armedservices.house.gov
11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: Korean Messiah: Kim II Sung and the Christian Roots of North Korea’s Personality Cult,” with author Jonathan Cheng, China bureau chief, Wall Street Journal; and Victor Cha, president, CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and CSIS Korea chair https://www.csis.org/events/impossible-state-live-podcast-korean-messiah
2:30 p.m. 124 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the National Nuclear Security Administration,” with testimony from Brandon Williams, administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; David Beck, deputy administrator for defense programs, National Nuclear Security Administration; Matthew Napoli, deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation, National Nuclear Security Administration http://appropriations.senate.gov
THURSDAY | APRIL 30
9:30 a.m. 2358-C Rayburn — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “Budget Hearing – The U.S. Air Force and Space Force,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Troy Meink; Space Force Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations; and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach http://appropriations.house.gov
12 p.m. — Association of the United States Army virtual discussion: “Once a Soldier, Always a Soldier: How Soldier for Life Builds Lifelong Readiness,” with Lt. Cmdr. Ray Wilson, regional director of Soldier for Life; Master Sgt. Nicholas Vargas, senior enlisted adviser for Soldiers for Life; and retired Command Sgt. Maj. Robert Abernethy, senior director of AUSA Non-Commissioned Officer and Soldier Programs https://ausa.org/events/noon-report/soldier-for-life
1 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “U.S.-Israel Technology and Security,” with Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-TX); and Joel Rayburn, senior fellow, Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/sustaining-edge-conversation
3 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research book discussion: Korean Messiah: Kim Il Sung and the Christian Roots of North Korea’s Personality Cult,” with author Jonathan Cheng, Wall Street Journal China bureau chief https://www.aei.org/events/korean-messiah-the-religious-and-ideological-roots-of-north-koreas
FRIDAY | MAY 1
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Case for a Cold Peace with North Korea,” with former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert, CSIS non-resident senior adviser and CSIS Korea chair; Robert Gallucci, professor, practice of diplomacy at Georgetown University; Anthony Ruggiero, senior fellow in the Brookings Institution Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy and Technology; and Victor Cha, president of the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and CSIS Korea chair https://www.csis.org/events/case-cold-peace-north-korea
5 p.m. Sedona, Ariz.— McCain Institute 2026 Sedona Forum: “Challenges to American Dominance” https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events/the-sedona-forum-2026/
2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Association of the U.S. Army discussion: “Strategic Landpower Dialogue,” with Maj. Gen. Lars Lervik, chair, Norwegian Army; and Tom Karako, director, CSIS Missile Defense Project and senior fellow in the CSIS Defense and Security Project https://www.csis.org/events/strategic-landpower-dialogue-conversation
3 p.m. 1201 South Joyce St. — Air & Space Forces Association event: “Salute to Space: The Legacy of General Bernard Schriever,” with Brig. Gen. Christopher Fernengel, director of plans and programs at the Space Force; retired Gen. David Thompson, former vice chief of space operations at the Space Force; retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Thomas “Tav” Taverny, chairman of the Board of the Schriever Chapter; and Master Sgt. Brett Schriever, great-grandson of Air Force Gen. Bernard Schriever
Register at https://www.afa.org/salute-to-spaceLivestream at https://www.youtube.com/c/AirSpaceForcesAssociation
