President Donald Trump has warned Cuba to “make a deal” or face a complete blockade. “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” he posted on Truth Social in January.
The Communist regime in Cuba has been a thorn in the U.S.’s side for almost 70 years. While its revolutionary leader, Fidel Castro, died a decade ago, his 94-year-old brother Raul Castro still controls major decisions along with two close, equally old confidants from his days as a guerrilla in the mountains. Just as with Masoud Pezeshkian in Iran, Miguel Diaz-Canel is the incredible shrinking president in Cuba. He controls nothing and cannot make substantive decisions without the troika’s approval.
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Most Cubans, meanwhile, have given up on the regime. Visiting Havana two years ago, not only young and entrepreneurial Cubans but also retired government officials privately acknowledged the failure of the revolution. The Castro brothers were diehard communists, but they were the type of hypocrites British novelist George Orwell lampooned in Animal Farm with the quip, “All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.” Progressives can blame sanctions for Cuba’s woes, but Fidel Castro died a billionaire. And, while Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s calls for freedom raise hackles among partisans who put their own political disputes above an entire nation’s freedom and liberty, the mass flight of more than 10% of Cuba’s population occurred under President Joe Biden.
Still, Trump’s efforts to crush Cuba’s electrical grid, as with his threats to destroy Iranian power plants, will be self-defeating. Just as in North Korea, deprivation has not ended the regime because security forces retain their privileged position and are willing to massacre civilians. If the end goal is regime change rather than state collapse, it behooves Washington to preserve as much infrastructure as possible for the day after when adversaries become allies. This was the lesson from Iraq.
Juan A.B. Belt, perhaps the foremost American expert on Cuba’s energy sector, notes that Cuba has only between four and 12 hours of electricity per day, with the end of Venezuelan oil shipments beginning an economic death spiral: Blackouts lead to economic contraction, which leads to less revenue, less fuel and maintenance, worse blackouts, and more emigration.
He argues — rightly — that such dynamics will mean chaos and mass migration should the regime collapse now. Rather than enabling a new Puerto Rico, tightening the noose further could condemn Cuba to become Haiti.
Instead, Belt suggests addressing the cancer of Cuba’s regime with a scalpel rather than an axe, let alone a flamethrower. The Trump administration should move forward with transition planning now, Belt argues. Public planning will dissuade cartels and the Chinese from believing Cuba to be low-hanging fruit for them to pick.
MAN CHARGED SECURITY CHECKPOINT AND SHOT SECRET SERVICE AGENT AT WHCA DINNER: TRUMP
Belt also suggests Congress address how to move forward despite the restraints the Helms-Burton Act imposes. Both congressional Democrats and Republicans should have a mutual interest in a functional post-Communist Cuba. His recommendation that the United States help Cuba prepare for World Bank and International Monetary Fund membership may seem counterintuitive, but Belt makes the case that Trump and Rubio should establish guardrails: No chaos near U.S. shores that could fuel mass migration.
Meanwhile, U.S. liquefied natural gas exporters could gain a new market just 90 miles off the coast of Florida, all while American engineering, construction, and management firms will win contracts. A lifeline and regime change need not be mutually exclusive.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
