“Look, we’re winning so big. We’re winning. Again, their Air Force is gone. Their ships are gone,” Trump told an audience of seniors at The Villages, a sprawling Central Florida retirement community where many residents lean conservative. “We’re just winning. If it were a fight, they’d stop it.”

But it’s not feeling the same as a victory. With gas prices nearing levels not seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Trump having dropped some of his more grandiose aspirations, including liberating the Iranian people, deposing their fanatical leaders, and vowing to accept nothing less than “unconditional surrender.”

Especially considering the war created a brand-new problem — Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas flows.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the strait as the “equivalent of an economic nuclear weapon.” Rubio, who is also acting national security adviser, argues any final deal must return the strait to its pre-war status as an international waterway with a free, unfettered right of transit.

When the war reached the 60-day mark at the beginning of May, under the War Powers Resolution, Trump was required to seek congressional authorization to continue. He notified Congress by letter that “the hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated.”

At that point, all the political objectives of war were unresolved. 

There was no agreement for Iran to forsake its nuclear ambitions, or to stop enriching uranium, or to limit its ballistic missile program. Or to give up control of the strait, which the U.S. was blockading at the same time.

Around this time, a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that 61% of the public believed the war was a mistake, and just under 20% viewed the war as a success.

Trump called the polls fake and blamed the negativity on “stupid CNN” or the “failing New York Times.”

“If you see CNN, you’d think they’re winning the war,” Trump said at the White House in late April. “If you’d read the New York Times — it’s actually seditious, in my opinion. You read the New York Times, you actually think they’re winning the war.” 

Trump famously dismisses any poll with results he doesn’t like, and the war in Iran is no exception.

“They did a poll on the war with Iran, and they said only 32% percent of the people like it,” Trump said May 4. “Well, I don’t like it. And I don’t like war at all. Well, when you explain it like, ‘Is it OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon?’ It wouldn’t be 32%. But even if you said that, there’d be a 32% because the polls are fake. I mean, they’re totally fake.”

A positive gloss amid deep uncertainty

In testimony before Congress, Trump’s ever-loyal Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth blamed what Nixon White House speechwriter William Safire once called the “nattering nabobs of negativism” on blind hatred of the president, also known as “Trump Derangement Syndrome.”

“The biggest challenge, the biggest adversary we face at this point are the reckless, feckless and defeatist words of congressional Democrats and some Republicans,” Hegseth said in a line used in testimony before both the House and Senate Armed Services Committee, calling critics of the war “defeatists from the cheap seats who two months in seek to undermine the incredible efforts that have been undertaken.”

Hegseth faced a sharp rebuke about his April 8 declaration that Operation Epic Fury was a “historic and overwhelming victory” from Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), top Democrat on the committee. Reed called Hegseth’s comment “dangerously exaggerated.”

“Let me be clear. Tactically, the United States military’s performance against Iran has been remarkable, Reed said. “By any measure, Epic Fury decimated Iran’s military and rendered its combat forces ineffective for years to come.”

But “today, our nation is in a worse strategic position,” Reed said. “The Strait of Hormuz was open. Now it is closed. Thirteen service members have tragically lost their lives, and more than 400 have been wounded.”

“Iran’s hardline regime remains in place,” Reed said. “It still retains stockpiles of enriched uranium, and its nuclear program remains viable. Iran’s military retains enough combat effectiveness to keep the conflict at an impasse. Its missiles and drones remain a far greater threat than you have acknowledged, and the regime has demonstrated it can effectively control the Strait of Hormuz when it chooses.”

Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran is “begging” to make a deal, and on numerous occasions has said “they” — without specifying who “they” are — have agreed to his key demand that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon.

But as Rubio has pointed out, that’s nothing new. 

“They have always said that. They just don’t mean it,” Rubio said at a White House briefing. “How do you know they don’t mean it? … Because they’re doing all the things and historically have tried to do all the things that you do if you want a nuclear weapons program.”

What Trump is seeking at the time of this writing is a Memorandum of Understanding — not a deal, but a framework for a possible deal — a broad outline of the issues both sides commit to resolve: essentially an agreement to negotiate.

“This does not mean that we will get a deal,” says Barak David, an Israeli reporter for Axios who has deep sources on both sides. “This, at the end of the day, sets the stage for the more important negotiation that will take place over 30 days, that will have to take all those general principles and translate it into actual details, all those issues, especially on the nuclear issue, are highly technical.”

Trump insists he’s under no pressure, that “he has all the time in the world,” but he also needs to convince the skeptical patriots in America, who remain unconvinced the U.S. is really winning the war, that what they are experiencing is short-term pain for long-term gain.

And Trump is also scheduled to visit China this month for a long-anticipated meeting with Xi Jinping, whom he calls a “tremendous guy,” and with whom he enjoys a “very good relationship.”
The last thing Trump wants is to arrive in Beijing and have to explain why China still can’t get its oil from Iran. 

“That’ll be one subject,” Trump said. “But he’s been very nice about this, you know? In all fairness, he gets, like, 60% of his oil from Hormuz.”

Trump is eager to do deals with China, and to negotiate from a position of strength, he needs to be seen as a winner. “We’re doing a lot of business with China and making a lot of money. We’re making a lot of money,” Trump said.

GORSUCH STRESSES ‘CANDID CONVERSATIONS’ AMONG JUSTICES AFTER SUPREME COURT LEAKS

A deal, even if it were just the bare bones of a framework, would be something he could tout as a major victory. 

While the war is, for the moment, deeply unpopular, Trump is well aware that perception could easily flip if he can nail down a deal that opens the strait and stabilizes global oil prices. And most importantly, secures an ironclad agreement that truly ensures Iran is unable to covertly restart their nuclear program.

Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) is the Washington Examiner‘s senior writer on national security.