The conflict between the United States and Iran has demonstrated to Gulf countries just how easy it is for Tehran to shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and turn the global economy upside down.
Iran has effectively imposed its own control over the vital waterway, where, prior to the war, roughly 20% of the world’s traded oil typically flowed through from Gulf countries such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Roughly 100 to 130 ships would sail through the strait daily before the war, while there have only been around 530 vessels that have sailed through since the conflict began on Feb. 28 through May 4, the Associated Press reported, citing Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
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The strait connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. At its narrowest point, the distance across the Strait of Hormuz from Oman to Iran is only roughly 21 miles.
Iran’s ability and willingness to shut down the waterway during the war unless the ships were coming to or from their own ports or paid a “toll” fee represents a threat to Gulf countries that will extend long beyond this specific conflict.
While countries in the Gulf are now seeking alternative routes, many of them only have access to one waterway, the Persian Gulf, meaning they will need to seek allies’ help, like Saudi Arabia, with possible new land routes for shipping purposes.
Michael O’Hanlon, director of research in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, told the Washington Examiner: “The Saudis will be the lead player here since they have a territory that offers the possibility of a dependable alternative. Others like Kuwait and Qatar would require the goodwill of Saudi Arabia (or Iraq) with a pipeline arrangement.”
For Saudi Arabia, it already has the East-West pipeline, which connects the country’s eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and is its primary export outlet. It can move up to 7 million barrels of crude oil a day. But such overland pipelines are also fairly easy targets, which was demonstrated when an Iranian drone damaged it in early April.
On March 19, the Iraqi government announced it had begun exporting oil via a pipeline that runs from Kirkuk in northern Iraq to Turkey’s Mediterranean Ceyhan port. Even if it is able to increase its exports through this pipeline to its goal, this still only amounts to roughly 20% of its average daily export from last year.
“Pipelines are themselves vulnerable to attack unless buried and/or made redundant,” O’Hanlon added. “Moreover, they take years to put in place. I think people will need to suffer a few more months of pain before they embark on a major new plan to develop additional pipeline so as to export through, say, the Red Sea. Watch the UAE as well, since they have the option of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz with new infrastructure/ports—though again, the alternatives could prove vulnerable to future Iranian attack themselves.”
There is also the problem of time. Constructing new overland routes could take years.
Grace Wermenbol, a senior visiting fellow with the German Marshall Fund, told the Washington Examiner: “Gulf countries are likely to seek to enhance their export options in the short and medium term. We’re likely to see a greater utilization of more costly and cumbersome overland trade routes. With that said, these countries do not have foolproof alternative export route options; the Gulf countries can’t change their geography and effective diversification of trade routes will take time.”
Another significant waterway in the Middle East is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which separates the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. On one side of the Red Sea is the African coastline of Egypt, Sudan, and Eritrea, while on the other side is Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
The strait is significant because it’s the only entry point to the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean, and through the Suez Canal, it connects to the Mediterranean Sea.
Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen, known as the Houthis, began attacking commercial vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in November 2023 — in the aftermath of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack in southern Israel, and their subsequent war in Gaza. The Houthis targeted those ships in solidarity with Gaza, they said, and they stopped those attacks once a ceasefire was agreed upon. The U.S. went to war with the Houthis last year until President Donald Trump abruptly announced a ceasefire last May.
Just this week, an adviser to Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei indicated that the Houthis could try to shut down shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb again, which would likely only compound the current global energy crisis.
THE LONG UNANSWERED QUESTION OF THE WAR POWER ACT’S CONSTITUTIONALITY
The subject of shipping routes through the Middle East is not a new concept, even if the recent actions of Iran have heightened those concerns.
About a month before Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, several countries announced the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which was designed to enhance economic cooperation and integration from Asia through the Middle East to Europe.
India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, and the U.S. signed the Memorandum of Understanding, and construction of infrastructure began last spring. This plan was designed as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But the initial outline of the IMEC includes transiting the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.
